Market News

Market Snapshot Index Close Change % Change S&P 500 7,764.70 +114.20 +1.49% NASDAQ 27,122.09 +599.55 +2.26% DOW 52,048.83 +366.19 +0.71% Russell 2000 2,875.36 +14.96 +0.52% VIX 14.87 +0.06 +0.41% Breaking News & Macro Events Nasdaq, S&P 500 surge as oil retreats on Iran diplomacy hopes — Yahoo Finance Stocks opened the week with their strongest session since early August as crude extended its slide: front-month WTI fell 4.2% to $92.03 and Brent held below $100 for a fourth straight session. The bid came from geopolitics rather than earnings. Trump signaled he is willing to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during this week’s UN General Assembly, and analysts framed the move as the market removing some of the geopolitical premium built into crude while Hormuz shipping recovers. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped back under 5% as traders trimmed bets on an accelerated Fed hiking path. The rally was concentrated: Technology and Communication Services led while Energy fell nearly 2%, and the Russell 2000 lagged the Nasdaq by 1.7 points. ...

Market Snapshot Index Close Change % Change S&P 500 7,650.50 +12.74 +0.17% NASDAQ 26,522.54 +104.24 +0.39% DOW 51,682.64 -95.40 -0.18% Russell 2000 2,860.40 -14.23 -0.50% VIX 14.81 -0.63 -4.08% A flat index line hiding a violent rotation underneath. The S&P and Dow both finished the week lower; the NASDAQ was the only major to hold a weekly gain. Breaking News & Macro Events Traders raise October hike odds as the 10-year touches 5.00% — Yahoo Finance The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 5bp to 5.00%, its highest of the week, as traders increased bets on a follow-up hike at the October meeting. This is the market walking back Thursday’s interpretation of Wednesday’s 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% as a one-and-done adjustment. Notably, the VIX fell another 4.1% to 14.81 on the same day — the rates market and the volatility market are telling different stories about the same Fed. ...

Market data as of 09:15 ET. Overnight Developments Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% — first increase since 2023 — CNBC The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday afternoon, its first hike in three years, citing inflation that “remains elevated.” Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has been “too high … for too long,” and officials signaled the possibility of another increase before year-end. ...

Market Snapshot Index Close Change % Change S&P 500 7,637.76 +85.95 +1.14% NASDAQ 26,418.30 +439.87 +1.69% DOW 51,778.04 +316.14 +0.61% Russell 2000 2,874.63 +15.82 +0.55% VIX 15.44 -2.27 -12.82% A notable detail about the shape of today’s session: the S&P gapped up roughly 1% at the open and then went nowhere. SPY opened at 761.25 and closed at 762.68, drifting in a ~2-point band for six and a half hours. The entire gain was set before the first trade — this was an overnight repricing of Wednesday’s Fed decision plus this morning’s 8:30am data, not an intraday trend. ...

Overnight Developments The Fed is expected to hike for the first time in three years — CNBC The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting today with a decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference at 2:30. Markets put better than 90% odds on a quarter-point hike to 3.75%–4.00% from the current 3.50%–3.75%, per CME FedWatch. A month ago those odds were 36%. Hot inflation readings and crude above $100 did the rest. ...

Overnight Developments Crypto slides into the Fed meeting; watchlist crypto proxies down 3–5% — AP via KSAT No single overnight headline. Bitcoin drifted from $78,750 at Monday’s 4pm ET close to about $76,900 this morning (-2.3%), with Ether -2.0%. The crypto-linked names on the watchlist are running at roughly twice that beta pre-market (see below). The backdrop is rates, not crypto-specific news: the FOMC’s two-day meeting starts today with the decision due tomorrow at 2pm ET, futures price roughly a 60% chance of a 25bp hike from the current 3.50–3.75% range, and the 10-year yield touched 5.02% during Monday’s session, its first move above 5% since October 2023. Affected sectors: Crypto / fintech, long-duration tech, rate-sensitives ...

Market Snapshot Index Close Change % Change S&P 500 7,585.73 -34.25 -0.45% NASDAQ 25,981.57 -204.84 -0.78% DOW 52,093.11 -328.09 -0.63% Russell 2000 2,870.29 -21.95 -0.76% VIX 17.20 +0.10 +0.58% Broad but orderly decline. Every major index finished lower while the VIX barely moved — a market repositioning ahead of a known event rather than one reacting to a shock. Breaking News & Macro Events Oil surges as US–Iran strikes disrupt the Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera Crude was the day’s dominant macro story. WTI settled near $105.92 (+3.96%) and Brent near $108.64 (+2.35%), with Brent at four-month highs. Two supply constraints are compounding: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has thinned to roughly 10 commodity ships per day over the last ten days amid escalating US–Iran strikes, and Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline — the primary workaround for Hormuz flows — was shut last week with Aramco yet to give a restart timeline. Analysts cited by ABC News argue Brent may need to approach $150 to force demand destruction in emerging Asia if inventory depletion continues. An energy shock arriving the day before a Fed decision is an awkward coincidence of timing. ...

Overnight Developments AI leaders call for slowing frontier development — CNBC Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said AI model progress should be deliberately slowed on safety grounds. OpenAI’s Sam Altman agreed the industry needs to “pace the frontier,” and Elon Musk backed the view. Markets read it as a threat to the AI capex cycle, and the selling concentrated in semiconductors and AI hardware rather than in software. Reports of a shakeup in the AI IPO pipeline added to the pressure. Affected sectors: Semiconductors, AI hardware, Technology ...

Market Snapshot Index Close Change % Change S&P 500 7,619.98 -37.00 -0.48% NASDAQ 26,186.41 -146.62 -0.56% DOW 52,421.20 -152.09 -0.29% Russell 2000 2,892.24 -11.71 -0.40% VIX 17.10 +1.26 +7.95% Breaking News & Macro Events AI infrastructure stocks slump on calls for an AI slowdown — CNBC Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a weekend essay, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” arguing the industry “must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models.” Sam Altman and Elon Musk backed him; President Trump pushed back against regulation. The market read it as a threat to the AI capex cycle, and the damage was concentrated in the hardware supply chain: the SMH semiconductor ETF fell -4.75%, SOXX -5.63%, Micron -5.25%, Intel and Applied Materials more than -4% each, and Nvidia about -3%. Notably, the large-cap AI consumers went the other way — GOOG +3.06% and META +2.71% — so this was a supply-chain de-rating, not a market-wide risk-off day. ...

Overnight Developments No new geopolitical shock landed after Thursday’s close. The one genuine overnight move is in energy: crude is giving back Thursday’s Hormuz spike. Oil Retraces the Iran Risk Premium WTI is at $99.18, -3.22% overnight; Brent at $103.78, -3.58%. That unwinds a large chunk of Thursday’s surge, when the US oil ETF proxies jumped +5.6% (USO) and +6.4% (BNO) after Iran’s IRGC destroyed a US Saildrone in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi forces moved on Perim Island. Both of those events happened during Thursday’s session — they are already in the tape, not fresh catalysts. The overnight story is the fade of that premium, and it is the most plausible driver of the firmer US futures. Affected sectors: Energy, Transports, Airlines ...