Overnight Developments
Trump Suspends Iran Attacks for 2 Weeks; Iran Agrees to Open Strait of Hormuz — CNBC
The US and Iran reached a temporary de-escalation overnight. Trump suspended planned strikes for two weeks, and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices collapsed 13–14%, with WTI falling to ~$97 and Brent to ~$95, erasing weeks of geopolitical risk premium. Global markets surged on the relief rally while US tech/growth stocks face rotation pressure. Affected sectors: Energy, Defense, Transportation, Financials
AI Disruption Narrative Pressures Software & Tech — Fortune
Wall Street analysts warn AI is disrupting legacy software companies, with roughly $1T in market value wiped out across the sector. Top analysts argue the AI opportunity may be “just starting” but the transition is punishing incumbents and high-multiple growth names in the near term. Affected sectors: Tech, Software, AI/Cloud
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,836 | +0.31% |
| NASDAQ | 25,216 | +0.45% |
| DOW | 48,051 | +0.46% |
Futures modestly green but lagging international markets significantly — rotation into non-US equities and cyclicals as geopolitical premium unwinds.
Watchlist Movers
| Ticker | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|
| SOFI | -6.28% | Barclays cut PT from $28 to $18 citing macro uncertainty |
| OKLO | -5.59% | Down 70% from 2025 highs; commercial viability concerns persist despite DoE approvals |
| RKLB | -5.42% | Broader growth/speculative selloff |
| MSTR | -5.34% | $14.46B unrealized loss on 766,970 BTC holdings; avg cost $75,644 |
| TEM | -5.33% | AI healthcare stock caught in growth rotation |
| CRCL | -5.22% | Circle pressured alongside crypto weakness |
| HIMS | -4.74% | Telehealth/DTC selling pressure |
| NNE | -4.38% | Nuclear sector weakness |
| TSM | -4.08% | Geopolitical concerns over Chinese military activity near Taiwan |
| SMR | -4.08% | Nuclear sector rotation |
| META | -3.63% | Big tech caught in AI disruption crossfire |
| AMZN | -3.62% | Broad tech weakness; analysts maintain Buy at $281 PT |
| INTC | -3.48% | Semiconductor sector headwinds; announced 49% share buyback |
| SMCI | -3.24% | AI infrastructure selling pressure |
International Markets
| Market | Change |
|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | +5.21% |
| DAX | +4.88% |
| Hang Seng | +3.09% |
| FTSE 100 | +2.83% |
| Shanghai Composite | +2.67% |
| KOSPI | +7.00% |
Asia and Europe posted massive relief rallies on the Iran ceasefire. South Korea’s KOSPI led with a +7% surge. The oil price collapse relieves stagflation fears and reduces energy costs for import-dependent economies.
What to Watch at Open
The US open faces a tug-of-war: geopolitical relief and collapsing oil should support cyclicals and transports, but tech/growth is under heavy rotation pressure from AI disruption fears and weakening GDP growth (Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 1.6% for Q1). Watch whether the international relief rally spills into US equities or if sector rotation accelerates the tech selloff.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.