Overnight Developments
Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75% as Four Dissents Roil Crypto and Tech — CNBC
The FOMC held rates steady on an 8-4 vote, with the four dissenters pushing back against any forward easing guidance. Powell separately announced he will remain on the Board after his chairmanship ends. Bitcoin slid below $75k on the hawkish surprise; rate-sensitive tech and financials face pressure at the open. Affected sectors: Tech, Financials, Crypto
Mag 7 Capex Sticker Shock — Meta, Amazon, Microsoft Hit on AI Spend — CNBC
Wednesday’s after-hours print was a beat-and-bleed: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all topped EPS, but Meta lifted FY capex guidance to $125–145B and Amazon shed 3.7% on AWS spend concerns. The takeaway from every call: AI infrastructure costs are climbing faster than monetization. Cloud-cap-ex names and hyperscaler suppliers are the read-throughs. Affected sectors: Technology, Cloud, Semiconductors
Trump Vows Indefinite Iran Blockade — Brent Spikes to $119 — Al Jazeera
The administration said the naval blockade stays in place until a nuclear deal is reached; Tehran threatened “practical and unprecedented action.” Brent crude jumped to $119/bbl. Energy and shipping rally; airlines and discretionary names with fuel exposure under pressure. Affected sectors: Energy, Transportation, Shipping, Airlines
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,183.25 | +0.15% |
| NASDAQ | 27,387.50 | -0.10% |
| DOW | 49,323.00 | +1.13% |
The split tape — DOW up sharply, NASDAQ slightly red — reflects rotation out of mega-cap tech (capex anxiety) into cyclicals and energy (oil shock).
Watchlist Movers
- META +7.53% — bounce-back after Wed AH selloff; capex guide ($125–145B) digested as growth investment, EPS $7.31 vs $6.90 est.
- GOOG -6.59% — YouTube ad revenue missed at $9.88B despite headline beat; Google Cloud +63% wasn’t enough to offset.
- INTC -4.06% — profit-taking after a 12% rip on Tuesday; YTD still +150% on the “CPU renaissance” thesis (Evercore ISI upgrade, $111 PT).
Other Notable Movers
- QCOM +10–12% — Q2 beat plus reported OpenAI smartphone chip partnership and major data-center cloud win.
- KALV +38.7% — KalVista acquired by Chiesi Group at $27/share cash.
International Markets
Asia mixed and weak: Nikkei -0.92%, Hang Seng -1.28%, Shanghai +0.14% — the Fed dissents and oil spike weighed. Europe firmer on energy strength: FTSE 100 +1.16%, DAX +0.49%.
What to Watch at Open
Two cross-currents will set tone today: how much further hyperscaler capex fear bleeds into the broader semi/cloud complex, and whether oil holds $119 if Iran rhetoric escalates — energy strength can mask weakness elsewhere in the DOW, but persistent crude above $115 starts to bite consumer and transport names.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.