Overnight Developments

Trump Pauses “Project Freedom” as US–Iran Near Framework Peace Deal — CNBC / Bloomberg / Axios

President Trump announced he is pausing “Project Freedom” — the US plan to escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — citing “Great Progress” toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Iran. Axios reports Washington and Tehran are edging toward a one-page framework to end hostilities and reopen Iranian ports, effectively lifting the US blockade after a roughly 10-week conflict. Risk-on response is broad: European indices surged (DAX +2.80%, FTSE +2.32%, CAC ~+3%), US futures jumped, and crude oil sold off sharply on easing supply-disruption fears. Affected sectors: Energy (down on lower oil), Defense (down), Airlines, Shipping, Tech/Semis, Financials, Consumer Discretionary (up on risk-on).

Futures & Pre-Market

IndexFuturesChange
S&P 5007,356.75+0.67%
NASDAQ28,582.25+0.95%
DOW49,951.00+0.86%

Watchlist Movers

  • SMCI −15.28% pre-market — profit-taking after Tuesday’s ~13%+ post-earnings rally on Q3 margin beat; Citi raised PT to $31, Mizuho to $30, both kept Neutral, capping enthusiasm.
  • TEM +8.79% pre-market — Q1 revenue +36% YoY to $348.1M, beat consensus; diagnostics +35%, data/apps +41%; third straight quarter of bookings above $100M; full-year guidance raised to $1.59B–$1.60B.
  • INTC −4.59% pre-market — pullback after Tuesday’s ~13% spike to all-time highs on the Bloomberg report that Apple is in talks for Intel to be its main US chip foundry. After a +175% YTD / +430% one-year run, this reads as profit-taking and short-cover unwind.
  • MSTR +4.50% pre-market — strength tied to Bitcoin price action and Q1 results; despite a $12.54B net loss on BTC mark-to-market, Strategy holds ~818,334 BTC ($64.14B vs $61.81B cost) and signaled it will resume BTC purchases.

International Markets

Europe is leading the rally on the Hormuz de-escalation: DAX +2.80%, FTSE 100 +2.32%. Asia closed firm earlier — Nikkei +0.68%, Hang Seng +1.22%, Shanghai Composite +1.15% — with the bigger move concentrated in the European session as the Iran framework headlines hit during their morning.

What to Watch at Open

Watch energy and defense for the de-escalation hit (oil down should pressure XLE, XOP and defense primes) while semis, airlines, and broad risk assets ride the relief bid; the key tell is whether the Iran framework holds through the US session — any walk-back headline reverses this in minutes.


This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.