Overnight Developments
U.S. Strikes Iran; Tehran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed — Arab News / CNBC
The U.S. military launched strikes on multiple Iranian targets — reportedly firing 49 Tomahawk missiles — after President Trump vowed to respond to the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter. In response, Iran’s joint military command declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to oil tankers and commercial shipping, warning any vessel attempting passage would be fired on. The IEA has characterized the resulting disruption as the largest in the history of the global oil market. Brent crude is hovering near $92/barrel; oil pared some gains in early Thursday trade as traders weighed supply-disruption risk against headline fatigue. Affected sectors: Energy, Defense, Airlines, Transports, Materials
ECB Rate Decision Due Today — 25bps Hike Near-Certain — European Central Bank
Markets are pricing a ~100% probability of a 25bps ECB hike to 2.25% at today’s meeting — the first hike since 2023 — driven by Middle East energy-price spikes feeding euro-area inflation. The move is fully expected, so the reaction will hinge on the accompanying guidance. Affected sectors: Financials, Currency (EUR)
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,331.50 | +0.37% |
| NASDAQ | 28,889.75 | +0.54% |
| DOW | 50,339.00 | +0.48% |
Futures are bouncing after Wednesday’s selloff (S&P -1.62% to 7,266.99) as oil eases off its highs. May’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is due this morning and will be a key read on inflation pass-through from energy.
Watchlist Movers
No watchlist stocks moving more than 3% in pre-market. Energy-sensitive and transport-exposed names (UPS, AMZN logistics) worth watching given the oil backdrop.
International Markets
Mixed overnight. Asia was quiet — Nikkei +0.07%, Shanghai -0.16%, Hang Seng -0.65%. Europe is firmer ahead of the ECB — FTSE 100 +0.86%, DAX +0.19%.
What to Watch at Open
Watch oil and energy names for direction — any further Strait of Hormuz escalation could spike crude and pressure transports and airlines, while de-escalation headlines would fuel the recovery bounce. The May PPI print and ECB guidance are the two scheduled catalysts that could swing the open.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.