Overnight Developments
US-Iran Peace Agreement Announced — Share Talk
A tentative US-Iran peace agreement was announced overnight, easing one of the market’s larger geopolitical risk factors. Oil slid below $80/barrel on expectations that Middle East energy exports normalize. Risk-off hedges in energy and defense may unwind as the session opens. Affected sectors: Energy, Geopolitical risk, Emerging markets.
Fed Decision Today — Warsh’s First FOMC — Federal Reserve
The June FOMC decision lands today at 2:00 PM ET — Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting. CME FedWatch puts ~97% odds on rates held at 3.50–3.75%, so the focus is on forward guidance and the reported removal of the dot plot. Expect muted trading until the statement and press conference. Affected sectors: All sectors, Fixed income.
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,596.75 | -0.12% |
| NASDAQ | 30,488.25 | +0.07% |
| DOW | 52,479.00 | -0.12% |
Watchlist Movers
- None flagged (no watchlist stock moving >3% pre-market).
International Markets
Asia was mixed-to-firm: Nikkei +0.78%, Shanghai +0.38%, while Hang Seng slipped -0.74%. Europe is roughly flat — FTSE -0.06%, DAX +0.07% — as the ECB’s 25 bps hike takes effect (deposit rate to 2.25%) and the G7 summit in France wraps up.
What to Watch at Open
The session is a holding pattern ahead of the 2:00 PM ET Fed decision — expect thin, range-bound trading until Warsh’s statement and the dot-plot guidance drop. Watch energy names for downside as oil falls below $80 on the US-Iran peace headline.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.