Backfill for the first trading session after the July 4th long weekend (markets were closed July 3–5). Changes are vs. the prior close of July 2.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,537.43 | +54.19 | +0.72% |
| NASDAQ | 26,121.16 | +288.49 | +1.12% |
| DOW | 53,055.91 | +155.84 | +0.29% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,009.54 | +13.43 | +0.45% |
| VIX | 15.57 | -0.58 | -3.59% |
Stocks came back from the holiday in risk-on mode: the Nasdaq led as the AI/semiconductor trade reasserted itself after late-June weakness, the Dow topped 53,000, and the VIX slipped below 16.
Breaking News & Macro Events
Post-holiday rally as the AI trade reasserts — TheStreet
The first session back saw a broad advance led by megacap tech and semiconductors, with a strong Foxconn (Hon Hai) Q2 sales read reinforcing the sustained-AI-demand narrative. It marked a rotation back into the high-growth names that had wobbled in late June, rather than the defensive posture that dominated the pre-holiday tape.
EU trade deal takes effect; 15% US tariff on most EU goods — Baker Botts (Tariff Tracker)
The EU–US trade agreement formally took effect July 1: the EU removes duties on US industrial goods while the US applies a 15% tariff on most EU imports. Digital-services-tax retaliation threats remain a live overhang, and a separate Section 122 tariff deadline looms July 24 (comment period closed July 6, USTR hearing July 7).
10-year yield steady near 4.49% into Fed minutes — Trading Economics
Treasurys were quiet with the 10-year holding around 4.49% as the market awaited Wednesday’s June FOMC minutes for signals on how firmly the Fed intends to hold rates.
Economic Calendar
Key Data:
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | 3.63% | 2026-06-01 |
| CPI (index) | 333.979 | 332.407 | 2026-05-01 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2026-06-01 |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.49% | 4.48% | 2026-07-02 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.24% | 2.23% | 2026-07-06 |
Next FOMC Meeting: 2026-09-15 (71 days away)
Upcoming Releases (Next 7 Days):
| Date | Event | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | FOMC Minutes (June meeting) | Rate-path signals |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI (June) | Inflation check |
| 2026-07-15 | PPI (June) | — |
| 2026-07-16 | Retail Sales (June) | Prev. +0.5% MoM |
Watchlist
Dividend Stocks
COST — Costco Wholesale ($950.25, -0.15%)
- Earnings: 2026-09-24 (80 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-04-30 (past) | Yield: 0.62%
- 52W Range: $844.06 — $1,096.50
- News: Speculation of a 2026 special dividend as the 22-year dividend-growth streak and ~92% membership renewal rate underpin the story.
NKE — Nike Inc. ($43.34, -1.70%)
- Earnings: 2026-09-29 (85 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-05-31 (past) | Yield: 3.72%
- 52W Range: $40.00 — $80.17 (near 52W low)
- News: Continued weakness on soft demand and analyst target cuts; management guides low-to-mid single-digit revenue declines for the next three quarters.
PFE — Pfizer Inc. ($23.72, -2.47%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-08-04 (29 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-07-23 | Yield: 7.07%
- 52W Range: $23.11 — $28.75 (near 52W low) ⚠️
- News: Slid back toward the low end of its range; the 7% yield and expanded IBRANCE approval are offset by oncology trial disappointments (ex-dividend July 24).
UPS — United Parcel Service ($110.02, -0.58%)
- Earnings: 2026-07-28 (22 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-05-17 (past) | Yield: 5.93%
- 52W Range: $82.00 — $122.41
- News: Invested $48M to expand temperature-controlled cold-chain logistics; recently added to the Russell 1000 Defensive indices.
Growth Stocks
AAPL — Apple Inc. ($312.66, +1.31%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-07-30 (24 days away)
- 52W Range: $201.50 — $317.40 (near 52W high) ⚠️
- News: Reports of five new iPhone models for 2027, including a foldable “iPhone Ultra”; a Broadcom partnership extension added to the tape.
AMZN — Amazon.com Inc. ($244.16, +0.61%)
- Earnings: 2026-07-30 (24 days away)
- 52W Range: $196.00 — $278.56
- News: Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy, citing AWS AI momentum and the ramping Leo satellite broadband system.
CRCL — Circle ($68.65, +6.24%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-08-11 (36 days away)
- 52W Range: $49.90 — $262.97
- News: Rebounded as ARK bought the dip following the prior week’s ~17% plunge on the Stripe/Visa/BlackRock “Open USD” launch; USDC still captured ~70% of record volume.
GOOG — Alphabet Inc. ($364.90, +2.45%)
- Earnings: 2026-07-22 (16 days away)
- 52W Range: $173.88 — $404.47
- News: Rallied on renewed AI optimism as Google pushed back on doubts about Gemini’s competitiveness; Q2 report due the week of July 22.
HIMS — Hims & Hers Health ($38.28, +4.02%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-08-10 (35 days away)
- 52W Range: $13.74 — $70.43
- News: Canaccord’s street-high $40 target and a new $400M JPMorgan receivables facility supported the GLP-1/peptide story, though FDA peptide scrutiny remains an overhang.
INTC — Intel Corporation ($122.20, +1.54%)
- Earnings: 2026-07-23 (17 days away)
- 52W Range: $18.97 — $142.35
- News: HSBC’s $200 target and a BofA bump to $160 keep the foundry-turnaround thesis in focus ahead of the July 23 report.
LUNA — Luna Innovations
- News: Agreed to be acquired by TJC L.P. (going private). Quote data is unreliable pending the deal — treating the price as N/A this session.
META — Meta Platforms ($600.29, +2.98%)
- Earnings: 2026-07-29 (23 days away)
- 52W Range: $520.26 — $796.25
- News: Reportedly nearing a ~$6.5B Samsung Foundry deal for custom 2nm AI chips; the stock recovered even as Zuckerberg’s cautious agent comments and a ~$145B capex cycle weigh on ROI timelines.
MSTR — Strategy / MicroStrategy ($100.77, +0.00%)
- Earnings: 2026-07-30 (24 days away)
- 52W Range: $81.81 — $457.22
- News: Flat after the prior session’s pop; added 520 BTC (holdings ~847,363) and Citi reiterated Buy ($260 target) on the new capital framework.
NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy ($20.19, +0.80%)
- Earnings: 2026-08-13 (38 days away)
- 52W Range: $18.93 — $60.87
- News: Holds a ~$577M cash position after a $400M placement as it develops its KRONOS/LOKI/ZEUS microreactor line; analysts skew Buy.
NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation ($195.55, +0.37%)
- Earnings: 2026-08-26 (51 days away)
- 52W Range: $158.39 — $236.54
- News: Refuted a report of a next-gen “Kyber” rack delay, steadying after a ~7% monthly pullback; the Palantir sovereign-AI tie-up remains a recent catalyst.
OKLO — Oklo Inc. ($51.84, -0.99%)
- Earnings: 2026-08-10 (35 days away)
- 52W Range: $44.88 — $193.84
- News: DOE approved the Groves reactor Safety Analysis, though a targeted “first criticality” milestone remains unconfirmed.
RKLB — Rocket Lab USA ($93.09, -7.34%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-08-06 (31 days away)
- 52W Range: $37.57 — $151.00
- News: Tumbled on dilution concerns tied to the $8B Iridium acquisition and its ~$3.6B bridge financing, giving back the prior session’s deal pop.
SMCI — Super Micro Computer ($27.19, -0.11%)
- Earnings: 2026-08-04 (29 days away)
- 52W Range: $19.48 — $62.36
- News: Taiwan’s probe into alleged Nvidia-chip export violations escalated with employee detentions; the stock is down ~41% over the past month amid a $7B raise.
SMR — NuScale Power ($9.61, -1.54%)
- Earnings: 2026-08-05 (30 days away)
- 52W Range: $8.85 — $57.42 (near 52W low)
- News: Slipped below $10 on commercialization-timeline concerns; a new Paragon protection-system contract and ~$1.2B liquidity offer some support.
SOFI — SoFi Technologies ($18.61, +2.03%)
- Earnings: 2026-07-29 (23 days away)
- 52W Range: $14.92 — $32.73
- News: Launched fee-free small-business loans up to $250K; CEO Anthony Noto has been buying shares ahead of the July 29 report.
TEM — Tempus AI ($60.70, +0.71%)
- Earnings: 2026-08-04 (29 days away)
- 52W Range: $41.73 — $104.32
- News: Digesting a ~$9.6M CEO-linked share sale after Q1 revenue grew 36% YoY and full-year guidance was raised to ~25% growth.
TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor ($451.79, +4.06%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-07-16 (10 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $223.70 — $479.00
- News: Jumped as Citigroup flagged an upward revision to full-year revenue guidance at the July 16 earnings report; TSMC holds ~70% of the global foundry market.
UNH — UnitedHealth Group ($417.99, -1.73%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-07-16 (10 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $234.60 — $430.20 (near 52W high) ⚠️
- News: Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $468 (Overweight) ahead of the July 16 report; Guardant’s Shield blood test gained member coverage.
Commodities & FX
| Asset | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,155.10 | +$42.40 | +1.03% |
| WTI Oil | $68.55 | -$0.14 | -0.20% |
| Brent Oil | $71.99 | +$0.19 | +0.26% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1438 | +0.0015 | +0.13% |
| USD/JPY | 161.45 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.49% | +0.01 | — |
| US Dollar (DXY) | 100.85 | -0.01 | -0.01% |
Gold held above $4,150 even amid the risk-on equity tape, while the dollar was little changed — a market comfortable adding risk without fully abandoning hedges.
Notable Voices
Semiconductors will keep leading markets higher — Dan Ives (2026-07-06)
Ives argues semis will “significantly outperform” in 2H26 with July earnings as the catalyst, calling the ~$3T June tech selloff a buying opportunity and names like Microsoft, Oracle, and Alphabet “way oversold.”
July should be a stronger month for stocks — Tom Lee, Fundstrat (2026-07-06)
Lee expects benchmark-trailing managers to chase the dip, with a year-end S&P 500 target range of 8,000–8,800 — while flagging 2H headwinds including a SpaceX lockup expiry and elevated margin debt.
Five stocks to buy during the rotation — Jim Cramer (2026-07-06)
Cramer points to quality names swept lower by institutional selling — JNJ, PepsiCo, Starbucks, Constellation Brands, and TJX — as opportunities, favoring “quiet industrials” like Linde.
Warns of an AI-profitability “reckoning” — Chamath Palihapitiya (2026-07-02)
Chamath sees “not a scintilla of evidence” that AI has lifted broad corporate margins and expects a reckoning within ~500 days; he also stepped into the CEO role at 8090 after its $135M Series A.
Market Outlook
Markets returned from the long weekend leaning back into risk: the Nasdaq’s +1.1% lead and a sub-16 VIX signaled that the AI/semiconductor trade — bruised in late June — is back in favor, helped by a strong Foxconn read and Citi’s constructive TSM setup (TSM +4.1%). Beneath the index calm, dispersion stayed wide: Rocket Lab fell 7.3% on Iridium-deal dilution fears, Circle bounced 6.2% as ARK bought its stablecoin-competition dip, and defensives like Pfizer and UnitedHealth lagged the tape. The steady 10-year near 4.49% and gold holding above $4,150 suggest investors are adding exposure without fully unwinding hedges, a reasonable stance with the Fed firmly on hold. The near-term catalysts stack up quickly: June FOMC minutes Wednesday, CPI on July 14, and a pivotal July 16 doubleheader of TSM and UnitedHealth earnings. Momentum favors semis and megacap tech into earnings season, but the inflation and guidance prints will decide whether the rotation has staying power.
This digest is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
References
- Post-holiday rally — TheStreet — TheStreet, 2026-07-06
- EU–US trade deal tariffs — Baker Botts, 2026-07
- 10-year yield into Fed minutes — Trading Economics, 2026-07-06
- Costco special-dividend speculation — Yahoo Finance, 2026-07
- Nike demand weakness — Capital.com, 2026-07
- Pfizer near range low — Yahoo Finance, 2026-07-06
- UPS cold-chain investment — CNBC, 2026-07-06
- Apple 2027 iPhone lineup — Motley Fool, 2026-07-02
- Goldman reiterates Amazon buy — Yahoo Finance, 2026-07
- Circle rebounds as ARK buys — Yahoo Finance, 2026-07-06
- Alphabet AI optimism — Motley Fool, 2026-07-05
- Hims analyst upgrades & financing — CNBC, 2026-07-06
- Intel target hikes — MarketBeat, 2026-07
- Luna Innovations / TJC acquisition — Kirkland & Ellis, 2026-06
- Meta–Samsung foundry report — CNBC, 2026-07-06
- Strategy (MSTR) BTC & buyback — Yahoo Finance, 2026-07-06
- Nano Nuclear cash position — Yahoo Finance, 2026-07
- NVIDIA refutes Kyber delay — Yahoo Finance, 2026-07-06
- Oklo DOE approval — StockTwits, 2026-07
- Rocket Lab tumbles on dilution fears — Benzinga, 2026-07-06
- Super Micro Taiwan probe escalates — Simply Wall St, 2026-07
- NuScale below $10 — Investing.com, 2026-07
- SoFi small-business loans — Timothy Sykes, 2026-07-06
- Tempus CEO-linked share sale — StockTwits, 2026-07-06
- TSM Citi catalyst — TradingKey, 2026-07-06
- UnitedHealth target raise — Barchart, 2026-07
- Dan Ives on semis — CNBC, 2026-07-06
- Tom Lee: stronger July — CNBC, 2026-07-06
- Cramer: buy the rotation — CNBC, 2026-07-06
- Chamath: AI reckoning — Capital AI Daily, 2026-07-02