Overnight Developments
US Strikes a Dozen Iranian Targets Overnight — CNBC
The US launched a fresh wave of strikes on roughly a dozen Iranian targets late Wednesday, retaliating for Iranian missile attacks on American forces in the region and ending the brief pause in hostilities that began in late July. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has threatened further escalation. Notably, oil is not confirming the escalation — Brent is down 0.7% to $90.10 and WTI down 1.2% to $83.49, suggesting traders have largely priced in a conflict that has run since late February. Gold at $4,140 (+2.6%) is the clearer risk signal. Affected sectors: Energy, Shipping, Defense, Aviation
Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75%; 30-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2007 — CNBC
The Fed held rates steady Wednesday in a divided 9–3 vote, with three officials dissenting in favor of a hike and a firm warning on elevated inflation. The bond market revolted: the 30-year yield jumped ~10.5bp and touched 5.244%, its highest level since July 2007, while the 10-year climbed to ~4.67%. Swaps now imply roughly a 60% chance of a September hike. The Dow fell 800 points on the decision. Affected sectors: Financials, Rate-sensitive equities, Housing, Utilities
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,403.25 | +0.71% |
| NASDAQ | 27,756.00 | +1.51% |
| DOW | 52,009.00 | +0.47% |
Futures are rebounding from Wednesday’s Fed-driven selloff, with NASDAQ leading despite Meta’s collapse — a rotation within tech rather than a broad risk-on move.
Watchlist Movers
- META −10.0% ($585.61 → ~$527) — Q2 revenue beat at $60.8B (+28% YoY), but EPS came in at $6.18 vs ~$7.22 expected and net income fell 14% to $15.8B. Q3 guidance of $61–64B sits below the ~$63.2B consensus, and capex guidance was raised to $130–145B. The market is punishing AI spending it can’t yet trace to returns.
- SMCI +4.0% — AI server infrastructure bid alongside the NASDAQ futures rebound; no company-specific overnight catalyst confirmed.
- SMR +3.7%, NNE +3.6%, OKLO +3.2% — nuclear/SMR names moving together on sector momentum tied to AI data-center power demand. No specific overnight catalyst found for today’s move.
- AMZN +3.3% — running up ahead of its own Q2 report, due after today’s close (5:00pm ET). Options imply a 6–7% move. Consensus: ~$196B revenue, ~$1.82 EPS.
- TSM +2.6%, MSTR +2.6%, INTC +2.4% — moved more than 2% but below the 3% alert threshold.
International Markets
Asia was mixed to firmer: Nikkei +0.71% to 61,867 and Hang Seng +0.20%, while Shanghai slipped −0.62%. Europe is modestly green — FTSE 100 +0.34%, DAX +0.27%. No market is trading the Iran escalation as a shock.
What to Watch at Open
June PCE inflation lands this morning and is the session’s real risk event — after a divided Fed warned on inflation and the 30-year hit a 2007 high, a hot print revives the September hike trade and pressures everything rate-sensitive. Watch whether Meta’s 10% drop stays idiosyncratic or bleeds into the broader AI-capex complex, with Amazon’s report after the close as the next test.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.