Market Snapshot
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,728.20 | -24.91 | -0.32% |
| NASDAQ | 26,445.45 | -159.91 | -0.60% |
| DOW | 53,791.85 | -184.13 | -0.34% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,027.12 | +9.72 | +0.32% |
| VIX | 15.28 | -0.18 | -1.16% |
The headline decline understates how much moved underneath it. Megacap technology did all the damage — the NASDAQ lost nearly twice the S&P’s percentage — while the Russell 2000 finished higher and volatility actually fell. Energy and power names led. This was rotation, not de-risking.
Breaking News & Macro Events
U.S. stocks fall after Iran says Strait of Hormuz will remain shut — Fortune
The second day of the same story, and the more consequential one. Iran reiterated that the waterway stays closed until its conditions are met, removing the “deal is imminent” premise that had capped crude on Friday. WTI added another 1.6% to $83.41 and Brent 1.6% to $89.15 — a two-session gain of roughly 6.7% in both. Energy, utilities and industrials closed green; large-cap tech was the index’s drag. A chokepoint premium that persists into a CPI print is a materially different setup than one the market expects to unwind within days.
Trump pauses the reciprocal tariff increase to 125% for another 90 days — Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker
The scheduled escalation to 125% was deferred again, extending the arrangement struck in June that holds China duties at a combined 30% — 20% “fentanyl” plus 10% reciprocal. The 35% Canada tariff implemented August 1 is unaffected. Markets have now watched this deadline slip repeatedly, which is precisely why the reaction was muted: the pause is priced as the base case, and the tail risk is that one day it isn’t.
Economic Calendar
Key Data:
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | 3.63% | 2026-07-01 |
| CPI (index) | 332.568 | 333.979 | 2026-06-01 |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2026-07-01 |
| 10Y Yield | 4.72% | 4.65% | 2026-08-10 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.29% | 2.25% | 2026-08-10 |
Note the breakeven: 10-year inflation expectations have firmed four basis points in two sessions, which is the bond market pricing the oil move rather than dismissing it.
Next FOMC Meeting: 2026-09-15 to 09-16 (35 days away — includes a Summary of Economic Projections)
Upcoming Releases (Next 7 Days):
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Consumer Price Index — July — 8:30am ET, the week’s main event |
| 2026-08-13 | Producer Price Index; NFIB Small Business Optimism |
| 2026-08-14 | Initial Jobless Claims |
| 2026-08-15 | Retail Sales; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing; Industrial Production; NAHB Housing |
| 2026-08-16 | Building Permits; Housing Starts; Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) |
Consensus forecasts were not available from a citable source at publication and are omitted rather than guessed.
Watchlist
Dividend Stocks
COST — Costco Wholesale ($944.32, -0.88%)
- Earnings: 2026-09-24 (44 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-07-23 (passed) | Yield: 0.62%
- 52W Range: $844.06 — $1,096.50
- News: July sales results (2026-08-02) — net sales rose 10.7% to $23.12B for the four weeks ended August 2; comparable sales up 8.9%. Still the most recent company-specific item.
NKE — Nike Inc. ($41.32, -1.88%)
- Earnings: 2026-09-29 (49 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-08-31 (20 days away) | Yield: 3.89%
- 52W Range: $40.00 — $80.17 (3.3% above the 52-week low) ⚠️
- News: JPMorgan cut Nike to Underweight (2026-08-04) — Matthew Boss went to Underweight from Neutral with a $40 target, down from $47, arguing consensus estimates sit roughly 20% too high. His case: the “Win Now” turnaround pressures earnings through fiscal 2028, with a China marketplace reset costing over $1B annually from January 2027. The stock now trades just above both his target and its 52-week low.
PFE — Pfizer Inc. ($26.62, -1.59%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-03 (84 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-07-23 (passed) | Yield: 6.36%
- 52W Range: $23.58 — $28.75
- Executive: CFO transition — Dave Denton departs this Saturday, August 15; Cecile Guegan becomes Interim CFO August 16 while Pfizer runs a full external search. Pfizer states the exit is unrelated to financial or operating results.
UPS — United Parcel Service ($104.43, -0.28%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-27 (77 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-08-18 (7 days away) ⚠️ | $1.64/share, record date August 17, payable September 3 | Yield: 6.26%
- 52W Range: $82.00 — $122.41
Growth Stocks
AAPL — Apple Inc. ($304.91, -1.09%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (79 days away)
- 52W Range: $223.78 — $344.57
- Down with the megacap complex for a second session; no verified company-specific catalyst.
AMZN — Amazon.com Inc. ($272.27, -2.09%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (79 days away)
- 52W Range: $196.00 — $287.20 (5.2% below the 52-week high)
- Gave back Monday’s gain and slipped just outside the 5% band from its high. No verified catalyst.
CRCL — Circle ($71.16, +6.13%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-08-05 (reported)
- 52W Range: $49.90 — $189.92 (62.5% below the 52-week high)
- The day’s second-best watchlist performer, bouncing off a base built after the Morgan Stanley downgrade. The standing bull case is Arc’s founding validator cohort (2026-08-05) — BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, ICE, Standard Chartered and five others securing the network ahead of a September 16 mainnet launch, with BlackRock expected to deploy its BUIDL tokenized money-market fund on it. That is an unusually institutional validator set for a public chain.
GOOG — Alphabet Inc. ($343.00, -3.61%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-10-28 (78 days away)
- 52W Range: $197.46 — $404.47
- The single largest drag on the index and the worst watchlist decliner. No fresh same-day disclosure; the pressure is two standing overhangs compounding. First, capex guidance lifted to $195–205B with quarterly spend near $44.9B — enough to turn free cash flow negative even as Cloud grew 82%. Second, the DeepMind leadership shakeup (2026-08-05), where Jeff Dean left after 27 years and Demis Hassabis moved from DeepMind CEO to chairman. Spending more while the people spending it turn over is a combination the market is repricing rather than shrugging off.
HIMS — Hims & Hers Health ($30.51, -3.97%) ⚠️
- Earnings: Q2 reported after Monday’s close
- 52W Range: $13.74 — $65.30
- A textbook growth-versus-margin split. Revenue of ~$753M rose 38% and beat by roughly $61M, with subscribers up 19% to nearly 2.9 million. But adjusted EPS came in at -$0.37 against -$0.05 expected, gross margin fell to 64% from 76%, and a $42.5M profit a year ago became an $86.3M net loss — the cost of the GLP-1 build. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $3.1–3.3B while leaving adjusted EBITDA at $275–325M, which is the tell: more volume, none of it dropping through.
INTC — Intel Corporation ($97.71, +0.19%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-22 (72 days away)
- 52W Range: $20.76 — $142.35
- The largest capital raise on the watchlist and the day’s most striking demand signal. Intel priced an upsized $20B common stock offering at $95/share — 210.5 million shares, raised from a planned $15B — against an order book of roughly $100B. Net proceeds of ~$19.7B fund capex and working capital for AI chips and foundry; the deal closes August 12. The stock absorbed a $20B raise priced below market and still finished higher on 163 million shares — five times its typical volume. Dilution that gets bid is not a normal reaction.
LUNA — Luna Innovations ($1.27, last trade 2026-08-10)
- 52W Range: $0.67 — $1.75
- Effectively a merger-arb stub, not a trading stock. Luna agreed on 2026-06-26 to be acquired by TJC affiliate Ascend Parent for $1.39/share in cash, a ~26% premium to the 60-day VWAP, with closing expected in the second half of 2026. Shares trade on the OTC Expert Market and printed no session today; the ~9% gap to the deal price is the market’s discount for timing and closing conditions.
META — Meta Platforms ($599.12, +0.71%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-28 (78 days away)
- 52W Range: $520.26 — $796.25
- One of the few megacaps to finish green, holding the $599 handle. No verified same-day catalyst.
MSTR — Strategy ($96.09, -1.27%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (79 days away)
- 52W Range: $81.81 — $401.67
- The buy-and-hold thesis is now formally over. Strategy sold 1,690 BTC between August 3 and 9 at an average $64,262 — roughly $11,100 below its $75,385 cost basis — using the $108.6M to repurchase 1.15 million STRC preferred shares. Saylor’s public line that he has never sold “one satoshi” personally is doing a lot of work here; the company is a second consecutive week of net seller at a loss. The stock sits 76% below its 52-week high and 17% above its low.
NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy ($19.38, +4.36%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-08-12 (tomorrow) ⚠️ — consensus -$0.24/share
- 52W Range: $14.71 — $60.87
- Rallied with the nuclear complex into an earnings print. A pre-print move this size in a pre-revenue name cuts both ways tomorrow.
NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation ($217.50, -0.02%)
- Earnings: 2026-08-26 (15 days away)
- 52W Range: $164.07 — $236.54
- Dead flat on a soft tape — notable relative strength given the NASDAQ’s -0.60%. Earnings land just outside the two-week window and are now the sector’s main event.
OKLO — Oklo Inc. ($47.01, +5.66%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-08-07 (reported — Q2 loss of $0.28/share vs. -$0.23 expected)
- 52W Range: $36.61 — $193.84 (75.7% below the 52-week high)
- Third-best watchlist gain, recovering most of Monday’s drop. Still down more than three-quarters from its high.
RKLB — Rocket Lab USA ($80.01, -0.04%)
- Earnings: Q2 reported after Monday’s close
- 52W Range: $37.57 — $151.00
- Record revenue of $234M, up 62% year over year and ahead of the ~$231M estimate, with backlog up 137% to $2.36B and Q3 guided to $250–265M. The net loss of $49.3M (-$0.08) missed the -$0.05 estimate, and Peter Beck conceded the window for an end-of-year Neutron launch is narrowing even as first flight officially holds in Q4. Shares fell after hours and clawed all the way back to flat by the close — the backlog outweighed the timeline wobble, at least for one session.
SMCI — Super Micro Computer ($31.60, +0.45%)
- Earnings: Q4 FY2026 reported after today’s close ⚠️
- 52W Range: $19.48 — $58.78
- The most important print on the watchlist, and a violent guidance beat. Revenue of $11.1B missed the ~$11.55B consensus, but EPS of $1.62 crushed $0.96 — and the forward numbers reframed the story entirely: FY2027 net sales guided to $65–72B against roughly $52.5B expected, with Q1 FY2027 sales of $14.5–15.5B versus $11.7B. Backlog hit record levels on more than $60B of new orders in the quarter. Shares rose about 8.5% after hours. A revenue miss paired with a guide roughly 25% above consensus says the constraint was supply, not demand.
SMR — NuScale Power ($9.89, +7.73%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-11-05 (86 days away) | Q2 reported 2026-08-05
- 52W Range: $7.21 — $57.42
- The best watchlist performer, and worth being honest about: no verified same-day catalyst explains a 7.7% move. Q2 was a week ago and was ugly on its face — revenue of $0.08M against $8.05M a year earlier as Fluor’s RoPower FEED work completed, and a $50.1M net loss. The offsetting fact is the balance sheet: roughly $1.9B in cash and investments, a ~$900M sequential build, alongside ENTRA1’s continuing talks toward a TVA power purchase agreement. Traders appear to be positioning on the latter rather than reacting to the former.
SOFI — SoFi Technologies ($17.98, -0.77%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-27 (77 days away)
- 52W Range: $14.88 — $32.73
- Modestly lower. No verified same-day catalyst.
TEM — Tempus AI ($55.69, +1.14%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-03 (84 days away)
- 52W Range: $40.77 — $104.32
- Extended Monday’s advance at a slower pace. No verified same-day catalyst.
TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor ($422.06, +0.86%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-15 (65 days away)
- 52W Range: $223.70 — $479.00
- The cleanest datapoint in the AI complex all week. July revenue of NT$467.58B rose 44.7% year over year and 5.6% sequentially — roughly US$14.5B, a monthly record — bringing January–July to NT$2,872.06B, up 37%. That pace runs ahead of guidance for full-year growth slightly above 40%, with high-performance computing at 66% of Q2 revenue. While the market debates whether hyperscaler capex is destroying returns, TSMC keeps booking the revenue that capex becomes.
UNH — UnitedHealth Group ($402.19, -1.60%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-27 (77 days away)
- 52W Range: $253.67 — $461.62
- Slipped back below $405. No verified same-day catalyst.
Commodities & FX
| Asset | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,427.10 | +$65.30 | +1.50% |
| WTI Oil | $83.41 | +$1.28 | +1.56% |
| Brent Oil | $89.15 | +$1.43 | +1.63% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1545 | -0.0012 | -0.10% |
| USD/JPY | 159.31 | +1.42 | +0.90% |
| 10Y Yield | 4.684% | -0.015 | -1.5 bp |
| US Dollar (DXY) | 99.82 | +0.01 | +0.01% |
Gold and crude rising together while the dollar sits still is an inflation-hedge trade, not a haven trade. The yen’s 0.90% slide to 159.31 is the sharpest move on the board and pushes it back toward levels that have previously drawn official attention.
Notable Voices
Tech Awakens, Tom Lee Makes August Call — Tom Lee, Fundstrat (2026-08-09)
Lee argues the S&P 500 can reach 7,900–8,000 during August, framing the last eight to ten weeks as consolidation that has built the fuel for a breakout: recent deleveraging left cash on the sidelines, earnings have come in stronger than expected, and AI momentum continues. From today’s 7,728 close that implies a 2.2% to 3.5% advance in under three weeks — a call that needs tomorrow’s CPI to cooperate, given his cooler-inflation premise now sits against crude up nearly 7% in two sessions.
Commentary from the other tracked figures in the August 8–11 window did not surface from verifiable sources and is omitted rather than approximated.
Market Outlook
Equities slipped for a second session as Iran’s confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz stays shut lifted crude another 1.6% and pushed money out of megacap technology into energy, utilities and small caps — the NASDAQ fell 0.60% while the Russell 2000 gained 0.32% and the VIX actually declined. The composition matters more than the direction: capital is rotating away from companies whose AI spending is consuming free cash flow, as Alphabet’s 3.6% drop on $205B capex guidance and leadership turnover illustrates, and toward the ones already converting that spending into revenue, as TSMC’s 44.7% July growth and Super Micro’s FY2027 guide of $65–72B both demonstrate. With ten-year breakevens up four basis points to 2.29% and gold adding 1.50%, the market is quietly rebuilding an inflation hedge rather than dismissing the energy shock. That combination warrants attention into tomorrow’s 8:30am July CPI release, which now lands with roughly a 6.7% two-session move in crude sitting behind it and a Fed still 35 days from its next decision. Watch whether the small-cap and energy leadership holds through the print — if it does, this is a rotation with legs rather than a one-week reaction to a chokepoint.
This digest is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
References
- Fortune, “U.S. stocks fall after Iran says Strait of Hormuz will remain shut,” 2026-08-11
- Tax Foundation, “Tariff Tracker: 2026 Trump Tariffs & Trade War by the Numbers,” 2026
- Federal Reserve, “FOMC Meeting Calendars,” 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index,” 2026
- Costco Investor Relations, “Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports July Sales Results,” 2026-08-02
- CNBC, “JPMorgan goes bearish on this apparel stock due to its long turnaround,” 2026-08-04
- Pfizer, “Pfizer Announces Chief Financial Officer Transition,” 2026
- UPS, “UPS Announces Quarterly Dividend,” 2026
- Circle, “Circle Announces Founding Validator Cohort & Major Integrations for Arc Ahead of September 16 Mainnet Launch,” 2026-08-05
- Yahoo Finance, “Alphabet Lifts Capex to $205 Billion as Cash Flow Turns Negative,” 2026
- Investing.com, “Alphabet shares fall 5% as AI pioneer Jeff Dean exits in major shakeup,” 2026-08-05
- Hims & Hers Investor Relations, “Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results,” 2026-08-10
- Investing.com, “Earnings call transcript: Hims & Hers Q2 2026 revenue beats, EPS misses,” 2026-08-10
- CNBC, “Intel upsizes stock offering to $20 billion at $95 per share as AI demand accelerates,” 2026-08-10
- Intel Newsroom, “Intel Announces Upsize and Pricing of $20 Billion Common Stock Offering,” 2026-08-10
- Nasdaq, “Luna Innovations Enters into Definitive Agreement to be Acquired by TJC,” 2026-06-26
- CoinDesk, “Strategy sold another $105 million of bitcoin last week, repurchased $81.2 million of STRC,” 2026-08-03
- TradingKey, “Rocket Lab Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results,” 2026-08-10
- Benzinga, “Rocket Lab’s Neutron Timeline Wobbles, Overshadowing Record Revenue,” 2026-08-11
- TheStreet, “Super Micro Computer, Inc. Q4 2026 Earnings Are In: Here Are the Results and Forecast,” 2026-08-11
- Supermicro Investor Relations, “Supermicro Provides Fourth Quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 Preliminary Business Update,” 2026
- NuScale Power, “NuScale Power Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results,” 2026-08-05
- TSMC, “TSMC July 2026 Revenue Report,” 2026-08-10
- DigiTimes, “TSMC July revenue jumps 44.7% to record US$14.5B, 2026 growth forecast tops 40%,” 2026-08-10
- Fundstrat, “Tech Awakens, Tom Lee Makes August Call,” 2026-08-09