Overnight Developments
No macro or geopolitical events overnight. This morning’s move is entirely earnings-driven, concentrated in AI infrastructure.
Supermicro Q4 FY2026 Results — Super Micro Computer
SMCI reported after the close yesterday. Q4 net sales came in at $11.1 billion (vs. $10.2B in Q3'26 and $5.8B a year ago), with gross margin at 17.5% — up from 9.9% last quarter and 9.5% a year ago. Net income was $1,178 million against $195 million in Q4'25. Full-year FY2026 revenue landed at $39.1 billion, nearly double FY2025’s $22.0 billion.
The bigger driver is guidance: the company guided FY2027 revenue to $65–72 billion against analyst consensus near $54.4 billion, on the back of more than $60 billion in new orders and record backlog. Q1 FY2027 is guided to $14.5–15.5 billion.
Affected sectors: Semiconductors, AI infrastructure, IT hardware
CoreWeave Q2 Results — CNBC
CoreWeave (not on the watchlist, but the read-through matters) posted Q2 revenue of $2.58 billion vs. $2.56 billion expected, up 112% year over year, with an adjusted loss of $1.03 per share against a $1.20 expected loss. Backlog stands at $104 billion, with new business from Anthropic and Meta announced in the quarter. Q3 guidance of $3.45–3.6 billion came in at or above the high end of estimates. Shares rose roughly 14% after hours.
Affected sectors: AI infrastructure, cloud, data center
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,765.75 | +0.24% |
| NASDAQ | 29,816.75 | +0.64% |
| DOW | 53,914.00 | +0.06% |
NASDAQ futures are leading, consistent with an AI-hardware-led tape rather than a broad risk-on move — the Dow is essentially unchanged.
Watchlist Movers
- SMCI +9.2% pre-market (~$34.50 vs. $31.60 close) — Q4 beat on margins plus FY2027 guidance roughly $11B above consensus
- INTC +1.8%, MSTR +1.4%, TSM +1.3%, NVDA +1.1% — semis and AI infrastructure catching the read-through
- No other watchlist name is moving more than 2%
International Markets
Asia was mixed: Nikkei 225 +0.86%, Shanghai Composite +0.33%, but Hang Seng −0.83%. Europe is quiet — FTSE 100 +0.04%, DAX +0.54%. Nothing in the overseas session is driving the US setup.
What to Watch at Open
Watch whether SMCI’s guidance beat broadens into the wider AI hardware complex or stays a single-name story — NVDA and TSM are up around 1%, which is participation but not conviction. With the Dow flat and NASDAQ carrying the move, this is a sector rotation to monitor, not a market-wide repricing.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.