Overnight Developments
Two supertankers hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz — Bloomberg
Two crude supertankers were struck within minutes of each other late Monday while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz. The VLCC Sidr, operated by Saudi Arabia’s Bahri, was hit northeast of Khasab, Oman; the Senegal Prosperity, operated by South Korea’s Sinokor Group, took three projectiles roughly 17 nautical miles east of Khasab — inside a US-guarded corridor. UKMTO confirmed the strikes and reported no casualties and no environmental damage. Several accounts attribute them to Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles.
This is the fourth such incident in recent days and it escalates Sunday’s exchange we flagged yesterday, when US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island and Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan and the UAE. Tehran is keeping the strait strategically closed while the US maintains a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. Trump has said there will be a response: “We’re going to hit them hard.”
Affected sectors: Energy, Shipping/Logistics, Defense, Airlines, Tech (via yields)
The bond market is the transmission mechanism
The more important overnight move is in rates. Higher crude is feeding straight into inflation expectations, and sovereign yields are breaking out globally — the US 10-year at 4.76%, its highest since January 2025, with Japan’s 10-year at its highest since August 1996 and Germany’s benchmark at a 2011 high. That is what is pressuring equities this morning, more than the tanker headlines themselves.
Futures & Pre-Market
As of 7:40am ET:
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,656.00 | -0.53% |
| NASDAQ | 29,213.50 | -0.91% |
| DOW | 52,942.00 | -0.60% |
Commodities & Rates
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $87.48 | +2.0% |
| Brent Crude | $91.81 | +1.5% |
| US 10-Year | 4.76% | +9 bps |
| VIX | 15.81 | +6.0% |
| Gold | $4,429 | -0.03% |
Note what gold is not doing. In a pure war scare it bids; here it is flat and slightly lower than yesterday’s $4,497. Real yields rising is offsetting the haven demand, which tells you the market is pricing this as an inflation-and-Fed problem rather than a flight-to-safety problem. That distinction matters for which sectors get hit.
Watchlist Movers
No watchlist name triggered the 3% pre-market threshold. The largest moves, verified against pre-market quotes:
- MSTR -2.9% — bitcoin proxy selling off with risk assets
- CRCL -2.5%
- INTC -2.4%
- TEM +2.7% — the only meaningful watchlist gainer
- NVDA -1.2%, AMZN -1.4%, META -1.1% — megacap tech leaking on the yield move
- Nuclear/space complex uniformly soft: NNE -2.0%, OKLO -1.6%, RKLB -1.6%, SMCI -1.7%, SMR -1.5%
Long-duration growth is doing the bleeding, which is consistent with a rates-driven selloff rather than a geopolitical one. AAPL is flat (-0.05%) and defensives are holding: UNH +0.5%, PFE +0.4%, COST +0.2%.
Outside the watchlist, NVS is +5.2% on positive multiple sclerosis trial data and HOOD is +2.4% on a Morgan Stanley upgrade to overweight. AMD is -1.6% alongside NVDA.
International Markets
Europe is leading the decline: DAX -1.18%, FTSE 100 -0.84%. Asia was more mixed — Hang Seng -0.93%, but the Nikkei (-0.06%) and Shanghai (-0.06%) were essentially flat despite Japan’s yield spike. The selling is concentrated where rate sensitivity is highest.
What to Watch at Open
The 10-year at 4.76% is the number that matters today, not the tanker headlines — if yields keep climbing, long-duration tech stays under pressure regardless of what happens in Hormuz. JOLTS lands later this morning and payrolls come Friday, and with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation is the central bank’s chief focus, a hot labor print now cuts against equities rather than for them.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.