Overnight Developments
Crypto slides into the Fed meeting; watchlist crypto proxies down 3–5% — AP via KSAT
No single overnight headline. Bitcoin drifted from $78,750 at Monday’s 4pm ET close to about $76,900 this morning (-2.3%), with Ether -2.0%. The crypto-linked names on the watchlist are running at roughly twice that beta pre-market (see below). The backdrop is rates, not crypto-specific news: the FOMC’s two-day meeting starts today with the decision due tomorrow at 2pm ET, futures price roughly a 60% chance of a 25bp hike from the current 3.50–3.75% range, and the 10-year yield touched 5.02% during Monday’s session, its first move above 5% since October 2023. Affected sectors: Crypto / fintech, long-duration tech, rate-sensitives
Monday’s AI-slowdown selloff (Nasdaq -0.6%, NVDA -3.4%) has not extended overnight. Semis are actually firmer pre-market.
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,673 | -0.12% |
| NASDAQ | 29,376 | -0.14% |
| DOW | 52,686 | -0.07% |
Note: index futures are inside the September-to-December contract roll ahead of Friday’s quad witching, and the yfinance daily bar for Monday is contaminated (it shows ES=F closing at 7,625 vs a real Monday 4pm print of 7,700). The changes above were cross-checked against hourly futures from Monday 16:00 ET and the SPY / QQQ / DIA pre-market proxies (-0.19% / -0.15% / -0.25%). All three methods agree: flat to slightly lower.
Watchlist Movers
- CRCL -4.8% pre-market ($92.85 vs $97.42 close) — no company news; the stock fell steadily through Monday’s after-hours session and gapped lower again at the 4am ET open, tracking Bitcoin
- MSTR -3.5% ($132.10 vs $136.94) — Bitcoin proxy doing what it does; the move is proportional to CRCL’s, which argues for a sector beta move rather than a single-name story
- INTC +2.3% — modest rebound after Monday’s -6% AI-slowdown drop
- RKLB +1.6%, SMCI +1.0%, NVDA +0.7%, TSM +0.7% — the semis and AI hardware complex is bouncing, not extending Monday’s damage
- TEM -1.1%, GOOG -0.9%, SOFI -0.8%, AAPL -0.6%
- Everything else on the watchlist is within ±0.5%
Off-watchlist confirmation: COIN is down about 5% pre-market on the same crypto slide.
International Markets
Asia closed lower across the board with Hong Kong leading down: Nikkei -0.23%, Hang Seng -1.00%, Shanghai -0.53%. Europe is flat, FTSE -0.16% and DAX -0.03%.
What to Watch at Open
The crypto proxies are the only real action this morning, so watch whether Bitcoin holds the $76,000 area or whether CRCL and MSTR drag COIN and the fintech complex with them into the Fed decision. With index futures flat and semis bouncing, the broader tape is in wait-and-see mode until tomorrow’s 2pm ET FOMC statement, where a hike would be the first since 2023.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.