Overnight Developments
The Fed is expected to hike for the first time in three years — CNBC
The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting today with a decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference at 2:30. Markets put better than 90% odds on a quarter-point hike to 3.75%–4.00% from the current 3.50%–3.75%, per CME FedWatch. A month ago those odds were 36%. Hot inflation readings and crude above $100 did the rest.
This is also a Summary of Economic Projections meeting, so the dot plot lands at the same time. That matters more than the hike itself, which is effectively fully priced — the question is what the committee signals about the path from here.
Affected sectors: All — rates, financials, tech, housing
Treasury yields at two-decade highs — Investrade
The 10-year closed Tuesday at exactly 5.00%, its highest in nearly twenty years, and sits at 4.98% this morning. The 30-year is at 5.35%. This is the pressure that has driven equities lower in six of the last seven sessions.
Affected sectors: Tech, Real Estate, Utilities
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,675.00 | +0.03% |
| NASDAQ | 29,388.50 | +0.20% |
| DOW | 52,636.00 | -0.01% |
Futures are flat-to-slightly-higher — a pause, not a bounce. Nobody is taking a position before 2:00 PM.
Cross-asset tape: WTI crude $103.99 (-1.7%), Brent $107.67 (-1.0%) — easing but still above $100 with the US–Iran conflict unresolved. Gold $4,392.90 (+1.4%), silver $65.14 (+3.0%), DXY 99.72, VIX 16.74 (-2.7%).
Watchlist Movers
- INTC +3.6% pre-market (trading near $102.65 at the open, roughly +5.6% against Tuesday’s $97.14 close) — Reuters reported that SK Hynix is in early talks with Intel to produce memory chips in the US, potentially by leasing part of Intel’s long-delayed $100B Ohio campus. SK Hynix has since said it is “reviewing various measures” but that “no matters have been determined at this stage.” Treat this as exploratory, not a deal. (Korea Herald, Stocktwits)
- OKLO +1.7%, NNE +1.7%, SMCI +1.4%, SMR +1.3% — the nuclear/AI-infrastructure complex bid modestly higher across the board. No single-name catalyst.
- No watchlist name was down more than 1% pre-market.
One note on AMZN (+0.3%): AWS announced Tuesday that data hosted exclusively in its Bahrain region is permanently unrecoverable following drone damage sustained earlier this year. The strikes themselves date to February–April, not overnight — this is a recovery verdict, not a new attack, and the stock is treating it as such.
International Markets
Asia closed green across the board: Nikkei +0.49% (63,923), Shanghai +0.69% (3,891.60), Hang Seng +0.19% (24,713.78). Europe is firmer too — FTSE 100 +0.66% (10,724.59), DAX +0.32% (25,502.88). No overseas session showed any stress ahead of the Fed.
What to Watch at Open
The hike itself is priced, so the market reaction lives entirely in the dot plot and the press conference at 2:30 PM ET — whether this is one insurance move against oil-driven inflation or the start of a cycle. Watch the 10-year at 5.00%: if the dots come in hawkish and yields break decisively above that line, the six-of-seven losing streak in equities has further to run.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.