Market data as of 09:15 ET.
Overnight Developments
Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% — first increase since 2023 — CNBC
The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday afternoon, its first hike in three years, citing inflation that “remains elevated.” Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has been “too high … for too long,” and officials signaled the possibility of another increase before year-end.
Stocks initially sold the news — the S&P 500 closed -0.45% on Wednesday. Overnight the move reversed hard. The read-through: a Fed willing to hike into elevated oil prices is a Fed the market believes on inflation, and the cross-asset tape backs that up rather than contradicting it. Treasury yields fell (10-year from ~5.01% to ~4.95%, TLT +0.8%), the dollar eased -0.2%, gold rose +2.4% and silver +3.9%, while crude gave up nearly 2%. Falling yields and falling oil and rising gold is a credibility trade, not a growth scare.
Affected sectors: Broad market, Technology, Energy, Precious metals, Fixed income
Generac lands up-to-$8B Amazon data center generator deal — SEC Form 8-K / Bloomberg
Generac (GNRC) agreed to supply up to $8 billion of backup power generators for Amazon data centers, with initial deliveries of $2.4 billion across 2027–2028. Amazon received a warrant for ~1.69 million GNRC shares at ~$200.93, vesting in tranches against cumulative payments. GNRC is up ~32% pre-market. It is the latest warrant-linked power deal between a hyperscaler and an equipment supplier, following Oracle’s stake in Bloom Energy in April.
Affected sectors: Industrials, Power equipment, AI infrastructure
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,718.75 | +1.27% |
| NASDAQ | 29,736.00 | +1.61% |
| DOW | 52,538.00 | +1.22% |
VIX 15.42, down from 17.71 — a ~13% drop, confirming the risk-on tone rather than a narrow squeeze.
Watchlist Movers
Every name on the watchlist is green — this is a beta rally first and a stock-picking tape second.
- INTC +3.7% — SK Hynix reportedly in talks to use Intel’s Ohio fab for US memory production (a deal has not been announced), plus reports of a ~10% PC CPU price increase in early October and a Tigress Financial target hike to $145. Momentum continuing from Wednesday’s move.
- CRCL +3.7%, MSTR +3.3% — high-beta risk-on. Note Bitcoin is only +0.7% overnight at ~$76,600, so this is not a crypto-specific catalyst.
- TEM +3.3%, SMR +3.0%, OKLO +2.9%, SMCI +2.8% — speculative growth and nuclear/AI-power names leading, the classic signature of a duration-relief rally.
- NVDA +2.3%, AMZN +2.0%, TSM +1.8%, GOOG +1.5%, META +1.0% — megacap tech participating but lagging the high-beta complex.
- Defensives trail: COST +0.2%, PFE +0.4%, AAPL +0.5%, UNH +0.6%.
International Markets
Asia was mixed and Europe firmer. Nikkei +0.3% to 64,136; Hang Seng -0.4%; Shanghai Composite -0.5%. FTSE 100 +0.5% to 10,745 and DAX +0.6% to 25,689 — Europe traded the same yield-relief impulse as US futures.
What to Watch at Open
The 8:30 ET data dump — jobless claims, housing starts, building permits and the Philly Fed — lands before the bell and is the first inflation-and-labor read since the Fed turned hawkish; a hot print would test whether this rally is conviction or reflex. Watch whether crude keeps sliding below $100 and whether high-beta leadership over megacap tech holds into the cash session, and note that tomorrow is quarterly options expiration, which can distort late-week price action.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.