Market Snapshot
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,651.54 | -19.30 | -0.25% |
| NASDAQ | 26,861.06 | +63.52 | +0.24% |
| DOW | 50,906.05 | -443.87 | -0.86% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,796.86 | -11.06 | -0.39% |
| VIX | 16.34 | +0.30 | +1.87% |
Quarter-end close. For September, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Dow dropped 4.3%. For Q3, the S&P 500 gained 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, while the Dow lost 2.7%.
Breaking News & Macro Events
August PCE Inflation Lands Below Expectations — Yahoo Finance / TheStreet
Headline PCE rose 3.4% year over year in August, down from 3.7% and below the 3.7% consensus. Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred gauge — rose 0.2% on the month for a 3.0% annual rate, versus expectations of 0.3% and 3.3%. Both readings undercut forecasts, and futures pushed the expected timing of the Fed’s next rate increase from October out to December. Stocks rallied on the print but gave back most of the gain by the close: the Nasdaq was up 1.1% and the S&P 500 up 0.6% at midday before fading to +0.24% and -0.25% respectively.
Six Major AI Companies Sign White House Safety Accord — Al Jazeera / CoinDesk
Google, Meta, Anthropic, NVIDIA, OpenAI and xAI signed a voluntary agreement with the White House committing to external audits of AI safety controls, internal oversight teams, and independent board review committees. The pact covers risk monitoring for the most powerful models during training and deployment, including cyberattack and biochemical misuse vectors. It is voluntary and carries no enforcement mechanism, deadlines, or penalties; the administration described it as “morally binding” and plans a 10-member oversight board. Alphabet rallied as much as 3% intraday on the news.
Dow-Nasdaq Divergence Is Mechanical, Not Just Thematic — The Motley Fool
The 1.1-point spread between the Dow and Nasdaq came down to index construction. Mega-cap tech carried the Nasdaq, but in the price-weighted Dow, high-priced industrials and financials dominated: Goldman Sachs (-1.7%) and Caterpillar (-1.9%) subtracted roughly 16 index points each, more than canceling the combined contribution of Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple. Breadth was weak overall, with the Russell 2000 down 0.39%.
Shutdown Averted — Funding Extended Through December 11 — NBC News
Senate leaders reached a bipartisan agreement to fund the government past the midterm elections, and the House passed the stopgap 370-48. With the fiscal year ending today, this removes the risk of delayed BLS and BEA data releases — notably Friday’s jobs report.
Economic Calendar
Key Data:
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Target Range | 3.75%–4.00% | — | 2026-09-30 |
| Fed Funds Rate (effective) | 3.63% | 3.63% | 2026-08-01 |
| CPI | 334.131 | 332.813 | 2026-08-01 |
| Core PCE (YoY) | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2026-08-01 |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 |
| 10Y Yield | 5.29% | 5.26% | 2026-09-30 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.35% | 2.34% | 2026-09-29 |
Next FOMC Meeting: 2026-10-27 to 10-28 (27 days away)
Upcoming Releases (Next 7 Days):
| Date | Event | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 26) | 200K | 195K |
| 2026-10-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 55.0 | 54.7 |
| 2026-10-01 | Construction Spending MoM (Aug) | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep) | 90K | 90K |
| 2026-10-02 | Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 2026-10-05 | ISM Services PMI (Sep) | — | 54.0 |
Watchlist
Dividend Stocks
COST — Costco Wholesale ($910.34, -1.5%)
- Earnings: 2026-12-10 (71 days away)
- Last Ex-Dividend: 2026-07-23 | Yield: 0.64%
- 52W Range: $844.06 — $1,096.50
- News: Costco Caps Fiscal 2026 With Strong Q4 Beat — Reported Sept 24: Q4 EPS $6.75 and revenue $95.72B, both ahead of consensus. Net sales rose 11.2% with comps up 9.4% (6.7% adjusted). FY2026 revenue cleared $300B for the first time at $303.15B. Results included a non-recurring $0.15/share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds.
NKE — Nike Inc. ($35.40, -1.2%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-01 (1 day away) ⚠️
- Last Ex-Dividend: 2026-08-31 | Yield: 4.58%
- 52W Range: $35.22 — $76.97 (0.5% above 52W low) ⚠️
- News: Nike Announces Q1 Fiscal 2027 Earnings Call — Reports Thursday after the close (1:15pm PT), call at 2:00pm PT. Consensus near $0.44 EPS on $11.34B revenue, against $0.49 in the year-ago quarter. The stock sits within a half percent of its 52-week low into the print.
PFE — Pfizer Inc. ($28.52, -0.7%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-03 (34 days away)
- Last Ex-Dividend: 2026-07-23 | Yield: 5.99%
- 52W Range: $23.62 — $29.21 (2.4% below 52W high) ⚠️
UPS — United Parcel Service ($93.44, -0.5%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-27 (27 days away)
- Last Ex-Dividend: 2026-08-16 | Yield: 6.98%
- 52W Range: $82.00 — $122.41
Growth Stocks
AAPL — Apple Inc. ($333.02, +1.1%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (29 days away)
- 52W Range: $243.42 — $345.34 (3.6% below 52W high) ⚠️
- News: Rose as much as 2.5% intraday on reports of an October 13 product event, before fading into the close.
AMZN — Amazon.com Inc. ($249.15, +1.0%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (29 days away)
- 52W Range: $196.00 — $287.20
CRCL — Circle ($82.17, -1.8%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-11 (42 days away)
- 52W Range: $49.90 — $159.47
- News: No verified company-specific news in the window; the move tracked broader crypto-linked weakness.
GOOG — Alphabet Inc. ($340.74, +1.0%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-28 (28 days away)
- 52W Range: $236.68 — $404.47
- News: Google Signs White House AI Safety Accord — One of six signatories to the voluntary AI safety agreement. Shares rallied roughly 3% intraday, the largest single contributor to the Nasdaq’s gain, but surrendered most of it by the close.
HIMS — Hims & Hers Health ($29.79, +3.8%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-11-09 (40 days away)
- 52W Range: $13.74 — $65.30
- News: Securities Class Action Lead-Plaintiff Deadline Set for November 2 — Multiple firms issued notices today. The underlying FTC complaint was filed July 29, 2026 (not today) in N.D. Cal. alleging the company charged for prescriptions immediately after intake-form submission despite advertising provider consultations, obstructed cancellations, and shared health data with third parties. The class period runs Aug 4, 2025 – Jul 29, 2026. Today’s 3.8% gain is a bounce and is not explained by this legal news.
INTC — Intel Corporation ($120.23, +3.7%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-10-22 (22 days away)
- 52W Range: $32.89 — $142.35
- News: What’s Going On With Intel Stock Wednesday? — Rose with broad semiconductor strength, supported by server CPU demand from enterprise AI and agentic workloads where demand is running ahead of supply, plus 18A yield progress trending against internal targets. The day’s best watchlist performer.
META — Meta Platforms ($725.18, -1.8%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-28 (28 days away)
- 52W Range: $520.26 — $779.82
- News: A signatory to the White House AI accord, but shares declined anyway, extending a pullback that began late last week on questions about whether AI capital spending at this scale can earn an adequate return. The stock still finished September sharply higher on the reception to its Muse consumer AI agent.
MSTR — Strategy (MicroStrategy) ($153.09, -1.0%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (29 days away)
- 52W Range: $81.81 — $365.21
NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy ($15.85, +0.4%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-10 (next report; last reported 2026-08-12)
- 52W Range: $14.71 — $60.87
NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation ($228.38, +0.5%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-17 (48 days away)
- 52W Range: $164.27 — $236.54 (3.5% below 52W high) ⚠️
- News: Among the six signatories to the White House AI safety accord.
OKLO — Oklo Inc. ($37.02, -0.2%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-10 (41 days away)
- 52W Range: $34.38 — $193.84
- News: Oklo Just Launched Another $1 Billion Stock Sale — The second $1B at-the-market program this year, announced September 11. At roughly $38/share it implies about 26.3 million new shares, a ~14% increase in share count and ~12% dilution. The first ATM was exhausted at an average $55.64. Shares trade near the 52-week low.
RKLB — Rocket Lab USA ($69.68, 0.0%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-09 (40 days away)
- 52W Range: $37.57 — $151.00
- News: Iridium Stockholders Approve Acquisition by Rocket Lab — Approved September 24 with ~99.6% of votes cast in favor. Terms are $27/share cash plus stock subject to a collar, a notional $54/share and roughly $8B enterprise value. Closing is expected by mid-2027, pending remaining regulatory conditions and FCC license transfers.
SMCI — Super Micro Computer ($41.07, +0.1%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-03 (34 days away)
- 52W Range: $19.48 — $58.78
- News: Super Micro Skids on Reports It Lost a “Significant” Oracle Contract — Oracle reportedly canceled 300–400 NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 racks at roughly $3.5M each, a $1.1–1.4B order. Roughly 100–200 racks had already shipped. The initial ~10% drop and a subsequent rebound both occurred before today; shares closed essentially flat.
SMR — NuScale Power ($7.90, +1.8%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-05 (36 days away)
- 52W Range: $7.21 — $57.42
- News: A new $750M at-the-market authorization adds to dilution concerns, following nearly 90 million Class A shares sold earlier this year for close to $985M in net proceeds. Shares sit just above the 52-week low.
SOFI — SoFi Technologies ($15.72, -1.2%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-27 (27 days away)
- 52W Range: $14.88 — $32.73
TEM — Tempus AI ($81.90, -0.8%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-03 (34 days away)
- 52W Range: $40.77 — $104.32
- News: Tempus Receives FDA Clearance for ECG-MR — Announced September 28. The 510(k) clearance covers an AI product that reads standard 12-lead resting ECGs for signs of undiagnosed moderate-to-severe mitral regurgitation in at-risk patients aged 65+. It is the company’s fourth FDA-cleared ECG-AI product, extending coverage across arrhythmia, heart function, pulmonary vascular and now valvular disease.
TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor ($456.19, -0.2%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-15 (15 days away)
- 52W Range: $266.82 — $479.00 (4.8% below 52W high) ⚠️
UNH — UnitedHealth Group ($367.08, -2.1%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-13 (13 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $255.97 — $461.62
- News: The largest watchlist decliner. No verified company-specific catalyst dated today; the move coincided with broad weakness in Dow-listed managed care and financials.
Commodities & FX
| Asset | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,188.00 | +$8.30 | +0.20% |
| WTI Oil | $90.55 | +$1.17 | +1.31% |
| Brent Oil | $98.11 | +$1.95 | +2.03% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1333 | -0.0040 | -0.35% |
| USD/JPY | 157.46 | +0.10 | +0.06% |
| 10Y Yield | 5.293% | +0.038 | +3.8 bp |
| US Dollar (DXY) | 101.52 | +0.15 | +0.15% |
Brent front-month rolled from the November to the December contract today. The Brent figure above compares the December contract to itself (96.16 → 98.11); an uncorrected continuous-front-month quote would show a spurious drop of roughly 4%.
Notable Voices
Jamie Dimon Has a Plan to Revive the West: A “Big, Beautiful” Deal With Europe — Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase / CNBC (2026-09-29)
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Dimon argued the U.S. should offer Europe a sweeping free-trade agreement as an inducement for the continent to overhaul its economy and strengthen its defenses. He tied the offer to Europe completing its long-stalled Capital Markets Union and Banking Union, which he said would unlock investment for strategic industries and let more European banks compete globally. He suggested the pact could extend to Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines, framing seamless trade ties as a way for Western democracies to “set the global rules on trade” against autocratic pressure.
Market Outlook
Cooler-than-expected August PCE — headline 3.4% and core 3.0%, both under consensus — gave equities an early lift that largely evaporated by the close, leaving the S&P 500 down 0.25% and the Dow off 443 points while the Nasdaq held a 0.24% gain. The split was mechanical as much as thematic: Alphabet and Apple rallied on the White House AI accord and an October product event, but price-weighted Dow heavyweights Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar each fell roughly 2%, more than offsetting the mega-cap tech contribution. That the rally faded into quarter-end with the 10-year holding above 5.29%, capping a month in which the Dow lost 4.3%, suggests the inflation relief is not yet sufficient to overcome the rate backdrop — futures merely pushed the next expected Fed increase from October to December rather than reintroducing cuts. Friday’s September payrolls report is the catalyst that warrants the most attention: with unemployment at 4.1% and consensus near 90K, a soft print would test whether disinflation or genuine growth deterioration is driving the tape. Nike’s results tomorrow after the close — with the stock a half percent off its 52-week low — and Micron’s tonight offer earlier reads on the consumer and on memory demand.
This digest is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
References
- Yahoo Finance, “Stock Market Today (Sept. 30, 2026): S&P 500 futures rise as PCE inflation comes in below expectations,” 2026-09-30
- The Motley Fool, “Stock Market Indexes Rally on Inflation Data, Though the Dow Sat It Out,” 2026-09-30
- Al Jazeera, “How does Trump’s White House AI accord work?,” 2026-09-30
- MarketScreener, “Google, Anthropic, Meta, Nvidia, OpenAI, xAI Executives Sign White House Accord on ‘Super Intelligence’,” 2026-09-30
- NBC News, “Senate leaders reach a deal to avert a shutdown before the midterm elections,” 2026
- Federal Reserve, “FOMC Meeting Calendars,” 2026
- Tradingpedia, “Costco Caps Fiscal 2026 With Strong Q4 Beat and Sales Growth,” 2026-09-25
- Nike Investor Relations, “NIKE, Inc. Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Earnings and Conference Call,” 2026
- GlobeNewswire, “Kaplan Fox Encourages Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Investors to Contact the Firm Before the Lead Plaintiff Deadline on November 2, 2026,” 2026-09-30
- Benzinga, “What’s Going On With Intel Stock Wednesday?,” 2026-09-30
- Forbes, “Mark Zuckerberg Loses $11 Billion As Meta Shares Drop On AI Spending Concerns,” 2026-09-28
- The Motley Fool, “Oklo Just Launched Another $1 Billion Stock Sale. Is This a Worrisome Trend or Business as Usual?,” 2026-09-30
- Iridium Investor Relations, “Iridium Stockholders Approve Acquisition by Rocket Lab,” 2026-09-24
- Seeking Alpha, “Super Micro skids on reports it lost ‘significant’ contract with Oracle,” 2026
- Yahoo Finance, “Tempus Receives FDA Clearance for its ECG-MR AI Product Designed to Identify Undiagnosed Mitral Regurgitation,” 2026-09-28
- CNBC, “Jamie Dimon has a plan to revive the West: A ‘big, beautiful’ deal with Europe,” 2026-09-29
- 24/7 Wall St., “NuScale Power Rises 4% Despite Dilution Concerns; Uranium Energy Advances 4%, Oklo Gains 2%,” 2026-09-30
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “FRED Economic Data (FEDFUNDS, DFEDTARL/U, CPIAUCSL, PCEPILFE, UNRATE, DGS10, T10YIE),” 2026