Super Micro just told the market its quarter came in roughly $4 billion above its own guidance, and the stock is up 12% before the bell. That alone trips the alert. But the bigger story is one level up: SpaceX printed a quarter that beat on every line, Elon Musk said its boards have formed committees to discuss merging with Tesla, and the whole AI-infrastructure complex is bid into Tesla’s own report tonight.
Index futures are not doing much on net. Underneath, it is a tech-led tape with a French bond market quietly crossing a 24-year line and oil still grinding higher on Hormuz mines.
Overnight Developments
Supermicro Provides First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Preliminary Business Update — Super Micro Computer (SEC 8-K)
After Tuesday’s close, Supermicro pre-announced its September quarter: revenue is estimated at $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion versus guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, “primarily due to increased demand for AI platforms.” Gross margin is estimated at 12.0% to 12.5% versus guidance of 10.4% to 10.8%, on customer and product mix. The midpoint is about 27% above the guided midpoint, and the margin guide moving up alongside volume is the part that separates this from a pure pass-through quarter.
Two caveats the release itself makes. The numbers are unaudited and preliminary, and the company says actual results “may differ materially.” And this is a business update, not earnings; the full report and call are Tuesday, November 3 at 5:00 p.m. ET. SMCI is trading around $36.41 pre-market, +12.1% from a $32.47 close, which puts it back above where it was before last Friday’s 10% drop.
Affected sectors: AI servers, Semiconductors, Data-center hardware
SpaceX up over 8% in premarket after earnings beat and Musk hints at Tesla tie-up — CNBC
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year, against an LSEG consensus of $12.72 billion, with net income of $4.4 billion versus a $1.05 billion loss a year earlier. Its AI unit, now called “Super Intelligence,” grew ninefold to $7.56 billion and is the company’s largest business. First-quarter 2027 revenue guidance is $33 billion to $37 billion against a $22.2 billion average estimate.
Then the headline: Musk said on the call that he is considering a combination with Tesla and that both boards have created committees to discuss it. “I do think there’s a lot of merit to combining the companies as we are pretty much in the superintelligence singularity,” he said. SpaceX shares were up 8.5% pre-market per CNBC; Tesla was up 1.4%, and Rocket Lab, CoreWeave, Nebius and other space and neocloud names rose with them. Truist called the quarter “the first data point during the earnings season to support the bull case for AI cloud providers.” Tesla reports after the close today.
One watchlist spillover worth naming. CNBC’s live blog of the call notes Musk said SpaceX aims for “volume production” of AI chips at the planned Terafab factory in Texas during the third quarter of 2028, with Tesla and Intel as partners. That is the most likely reason INTC is up about 2.3% this morning; Barron’s headline attributes the move to the Terafab comments, though that piece is paywalled and we could not read it.
Affected sectors: Tech, Semiconductors, AI infrastructure, Space, Autos
French 10-year bond yield hits 5% for first time since 2002 amid unrest — CNBC
France’s 10-year OAT yield briefly crossed 5% shortly before 5:30 a.m. ET, the first time since 2002, and was last around 4.98%, up about 6 basis points. The backdrop is a weekend of rioting and looting, with damages officials put in the hundreds of millions of euros, layered on top of a 2027 budget fight in which Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is targeting €54 billion in cuts and Finance Minister Roland Lescure told RTL the government is willing to bypass parliament again via Article 49.3: “If we veer off course, we’ll activate the guardrails.”
It is not a US-market driver on its own, but the corporate read-through is already visible: Carrefour shares fell 14% after warning the unrest will hit its business. Separately, UK inflation jumped to 3.5%, cementing rate-hike expectations there.
Affected sectors: European financials, Consumer, Sovereign debt
Oil prices climb as traders assess Middle East developments — CNBC
Crude is higher for another session. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Tuesday that naval mines had stopped three tankers using routes Tehran deemed unauthorized in the Strait of Hormuz, with “two violating oil tankers… set ablaze.” Yemen’s Houthis claimed Monday strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities at Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, and the Riyadh and Abha airports. Goldman Sachs puts the global average crude freight rate above $20 a barrel versus about $3 a year ago, with roughly $7 of that attributable to Hormuz war-risk premiums.
As of about 7:00 a.m. ET, December WTI is $99.86, +2.1% and December Brent $110.74, +1.8% against Tuesday’s settle. Note the contract: November WTI expired yesterday, so today’s front month is December and there is no roll distortion in that number. A social-media headline asking whether the US had struck Iran circulated overnight; no dated wire report confirms any such strike, and CNBC’s oil coverage does not mention one.
Affected sectors: Energy, Airlines, Transports, Refiners
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,769.50 | +0.18% |
| NASDAQ | 29,821.00 | +0.49% |
| DOW | 52,714.00 | -0.01% |
Measured against Tuesday’s settle, as of ~07:00 ET. Nothing here clears a 0.5% move, but the shape matters: Nasdaq futures are up half a percent while the Dow is flat, which is the SpaceX-and-Supermicro bid showing up as a tech-over-everything tilt. VIX 17.41, up 0.6%. Gold is flat at $4,146 and bitcoin is +0.5% at $83,360.
Watchlist Movers
- SMCI +12.13% at $36.41 — preliminary quarter $4B above guidance (see above)
- RKLB +2.59% at $52.22 — space names bid after SpaceX’s report
- MSTR +2.58% at $146.40 — bitcoin is only +0.5%, and no company news turned up, so treat this as risk-on positioning
- INTC +2.34% at $93.84 — Terafab partner named on the SpaceX call
- NVDA +2.09% at $221.00 — AI-infrastructure read-through from SpaceX’s “insatiable” compute demand
- TSM +1.15%, SMR +1.79%, OKLO +1.53%, NNE +1.85% (thin print) — the rest of the AI and power complex is green
The red side is mega-cap and defensive and small: GOOG -0.85%, META -0.58%, AAPL -0.50%, PFE -0.50%, COST -0.82% on a single pre-market print. UPS had no pre-market trades at all.
Two data caveats. The pre-market feed is again reporting zero volume on every ticker, including SPY and QQQ, so share counts behind these prints are unknown. And our own quote script produced inverted signs this morning (it reported SMCI down 13% and INTC down 3%); every figure above was recomputed from Tuesday’s daily close against the latest 5-minute pre-market print, and the two biggest moves were confirmed against CNBC’s reported percentages.
International Markets
Asia split: Nikkei 225 +0.85% to 64,621 despite a big miss on September exports, while Hang Seng -0.90% to 23,652 and Shanghai -0.60% to 3,713. Europe is firmer on the SpaceX halo: DAX +0.71% to 25,483, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.75%, and FTSE 100 flat at +0.05%, with French bonds the exception to the calm.
What to Watch at Open
Watch whether SMCI holds a 12% gap on numbers the company itself calls unaudited and subject to material revision, with the real report still two weeks out. The broader tell is the AI-infrastructure trade: SpaceX’s quarter has NVDA, INTC and the neoclouds bid before Tesla reports tonight, and if that bid survives the open it says the “who can actually make money on AI spending” worry took a hit. Oil near $100 and a French 10-year at 5% are the macro wildcards.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.