Market Snapshot
| Index | Close | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,722.60 | +45.83 | +0.60% |
| NASDAQ | 26,477.81 | +308.43 | +1.18% |
| DOW | 52,377.57 | +15.99 | +0.03% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,818.87 | +32.45 | +1.16% |
| VIX | 17.52 | -0.87 | -4.73% |
The chip rebound had a second day. Per CNBC’s live market blog, Broadcom climbed 4% after Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone announced $63 billion in financing for Anthropic’s purchase of Broadcom technology. AMD gained 5% and Micron almost 3%. The Dow went nowhere because Boeing fell more than 9%: it won’t significantly ramp 737 Max production until late 2027. Small caps kept pace with the Nasdaq, and the VIX fell for a second day. Argent Capital’s Jed Ellerbroek: “The light switch has been off for the last two weeks, and it looks like the first two days this week, the switch has been flipped up again.”
Breaking News & Macro Events
Oil falls after Iran’s supreme leader discusses conditions to end the war — CNBC
Brent fell 1.7% to settle at $113.88 and WTI 1.8% to $99.90, back below $100. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met top security official Mohsen Rezaei to discuss the Islamic Republic’s conditions for ending the war with the U.S. His post said the current state of “neither war nor peace” needs to end, while stressing “control” over the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s defense minister held direct talks with Iran’s president in Tehran on Monday. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo still sees Brent near $110 through year-end, because global inventories have fallen about 500 million barrels since February and strategic releases are largely over. A deal headline would hit oil first. The inventory hole would keep it from falling far.
Fed starts its two-day meeting; CNBC survey says hikes come in December, not this week — CNBC
Of the 30 respondents to CNBC’s Fed Survey, 93% expect a pause on Wednesday and 76% a hike in December. Thirty percent said the Fed should hike now, and respondents expect at least two dissents in favor of a hike. Janus Henderson’s Richard Bernstein called the Fed’s hesitancy “unfathomable” with nominal GDP running 6–8%. Moody’s Mark Zandi argued the opposite: “This isn’t the time for more Fed rate hikes.” Respondents put recession odds at 26%, down from 29%, and see CPI easing to 3.6% from 3.7%. CME FedWatch priced a nearly 93% chance of a hold. The decision is at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, and the midterms are a week later.
Strong data: confidence jumps to 91.7, durable goods +1.8% — CNBC
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 7.5 points to 91.7, against an 81.0 consensus, as gasoline prices eased. September durable goods orders rose 1.8%, slightly above the 1.7% forecast. New home sales came in at 676,000, down 0.6% from August but above the 653,000 estimate. All three beat, which does nothing to soften Wednesday’s message. The 10-year ended near 4.99%, and the 2-year rose about 2 bp to 4.737% in the morning.
Nvidia and AMD commit $4 billion to Meta’s equity raise — CNBC
Nvidia will invest $3 billion and AMD $1 billion in Meta’s $95 billion offering. Meta will expand its Vera Rubin and Vera CPU deployments, and AMD said its Helios racks are running at Meta. Per CNBC’s Michelle Fox, the absence of a Meta bond deal pulled its credit-default swap spreads back in, though they are still up 177% this year (Amazon’s are up 129%). FactSet consensus has Alphabet at -$2.3 billion of Q3 free cash flow on $55.2 billion of capex, and Amazon at -$9.9 billion on $58.7 billion. The circularity, chip vendors funding the customer that buys their chips, is the part credit markets will keep watching.
Economic Calendar
Key Data:
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate (effective) | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (CPIAUCSL) | 336.298 | 334.131 | 2026-09-01 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10Y Yield | 4.99% | 4.99% | 2026-10-27 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.34% | 2.34% | 2026-10-26 |
The 10Y row is the ^TNX close (4.993% today vs 4.986% Monday). FRED’s DGS10 for 2026-10-26 reads 5.00%. The Fed’s target range is 3.75% to 4.00%; FRED’s monthly effective rate lags.
Today’s Releases:
| Event | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) | 91.7 | 81.0 | 84.2 (implied by +7.5 pts) |
| Durable Goods Orders (Sep) | +1.8% | +1.7% | +0.1% |
| New Home Sales (Sep) | 676K | 653K | — (676K is -0.6% m/m) |
FOMC Meeting: In progress, decision 2026-10-28 at 2 p.m. ET (tomorrow) ⚠️. The next meeting after this one is Dec. 8–9, per the Fed calendar.
Upcoming Releases (Next 7 Days):
| Date | Event | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | FOMC Rate Decision | 3.75–4.00% | hold |
| 2026-10-28 | Bank of Canada Rate Decision | — | — |
| 2026-10-29 | Q3 GDP Advance Estimate (annualized) | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| 2026-10-29 | PCE Price Index (Sep), core m/m | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-29 | Initial Jobless Claims | 194K | 196K |
| 2026-10-29 | ECB Rate Decision | — | — |
| 2026-10-30 | Employment Cost Index (Q3) | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 2026-10-30 | Bank of Japan Policy Decision | — | — |
GDP, PCE, claims and ECI previous/forecast values carry over from earlier digests (TradingEconomics) and were not re-verified today. The BoC, ECB and BoJ dates come from secondary calendars. The October jobs report is due Nov. 6, outside this window.
Watchlist
Dividend Stocks
COST — Costco Wholesale ($992.13, -1.3%)
- Earnings: 2026-12-10 (44 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-10-29 (2 days) ⚠️ | Yield: 0.59%
- 52W Range: $844.06 — $1,096.50
NKE — Nike Inc. ($37.56, -0.9%)
- Earnings: 2026-12-17 (51 days away)
- Ex-Dividend: passed 2026-08-31 | Yield: 4.33%
- 52W Range: $31.97 — $69.14
PFE — Pfizer Inc. ($29.80, +0.0%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-03 (7 days away) ⚠️
- Ex-Dividend: 2026-11-05 (9 days) | Yield: 5.77%
- 52W Range: $23.62 — $30.44 (2.1% below 52W high) ⚠️
UPS — United Parcel Service ($106.09, +5.8%) ⚠️
- Earnings: Reported 2026-10-27 — beat, and raised guidance again
- Ex-Dividend: passed 2026-08-16 | Yield: 6.54%
- 52W Range: $90.84 — $122.41
- News: UPS beats and raises full-year guidance again. Adjusted EPS was $1.69 on revenue of $22.9 billion (+6.7%), against LSEG’s $1.63 and $22.29 billion. Full-year revenue guidance rose to about $92.6 billion from $91.2 billion. Supply chain solutions revenue jumped 18.2%. The stock opened up only about 1% and climbed into the close, finishing near the day’s high of $106.58.
Growth Stocks
AAPL — Apple Inc. ($347.10, +0.9%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-02 (6 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $243.42 — $351.73 (1.3% below 52W high) ⚠️
- News: Goldman Sachs raises its target to $390 from $360, arguing price increases across iPhone, Mac and iPad will offset memory and component inflation into the December quarter.
AMZN — Amazon.com Inc. ($253.10, +1.6%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (2 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $196.00 — $287.20
- News: FactSet expects -$9.9 billion of Q3 free cash flow on $58.7 billion of capex (see Breaking News). Capex guidance is the number that matters Thursday.
CRCL — Circle Internet Group ($81.58, +2.2%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-04 (8 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $49.90 — $143.38
GOOG — Alphabet Inc. ($316.83, +0.8%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-28 (tomorrow, after the close) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $267.17 — $404.47
- News: Reports alongside Microsoft on Wednesday. Consensus is negative Q3 free cash flow of $2.3 billion.
HIMS — Hims & Hers Health ($27.92, +1.2%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-09 (13 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $13.74 — $49.17
INTC — Intel Corporation ($93.74, +3.6%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (2 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $32.89 — $142.35
- News: Intel is buying quantum-software company Classiq. Terms weren’t disclosed; reports put the price near $2.3 billion. The CNBC Investing Club said it’s “not how we would prefer Intel to use the proceeds” of its $20 billion August stock offering. The stock extended Monday’s New Street upgrade rally anyway.
META — Meta Platforms ($620.19, -1.6%)
- Earnings: Reported 2026-10-21
- 52W Range: $520.26 — $779.82
- News: Nvidia and AMD commit $4 billion to its equity raise (see Breaking News). The stock fell for a second day.
MSTR — Strategy ($141.40, +1.1%)
- Earnings: 2026-10-29 (2 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $81.81 — $297.20
- News: Bitcoin rose 0.7% to about $80,580.
NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy ($12.34, +4.0%) ⚠️
- Earnings: next date not yet listed
- 52W Range: $11.74 — $49.50 (5.1% above 52W low)
- News: Signed an MoU with Hyundai Engineering to advance execution of its KRONOS MMR project and future fleet deployment. The nuclear group rallied as a whole (see SMR).
NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation ($217.94, +0.9%)
- Earnings: 2026-11-17 (21 days away)
- 52W Range: $164.27 — $243.37
- News: Committed $3 billion to Meta’s equity offering, with Meta expanding Vera Rubin and Vera CPU deployment.
OKLO — Oklo Inc. ($27.33, +5.4%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-11-06 (10 days away, per yfinance) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $25.39 — $152.06 (7.6% above 52W low)
RKLB — Rocket Lab USA ($58.31, +8.3%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-11-09 (13 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $37.57 — $151.00
- News: Rebounded 8% but is still down 17% in 2026, per 24/7 Wall St. It points to a record $2.36 billion backlog and settled financing for the pending Iridium acquisition, which still needs a shareholder vote and regulatory approval. The stock had dropped 29% over the prior month.
SMR — NuScale Power ($5.70, +8.2%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-11-05 (9 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $5.20 — $45.54 (9.6% above 52W low)
- News: A broad nuclear and critical-minerals rally lifted the Global X Uranium ETF 5%, led by Energy Fuels’ conditional $126 million Australian financing. Per the live blog, the DOE also offered Constellation a $5 billion conditional loan to upgrade its reactors. All three nuclear names on this list bounced 4–8% off Monday’s lows.
SMCI — Super Micro Computer ($35.09, +7.3%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-11-03 (7 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $19.48 — $54.08
- News: Rallied with AI hardware names. No company-specific catalyst was confirmed.
SOFI — SoFi Technologies ($16.40, +13.4%) ⚠️
- Earnings: Reported 2026-10-27 — beat and raised
- 52W Range: $13.86 — $32.73
- News: SoFi reported record Q3 net revenue of $1.4 billion, with net income of $241 million and adjusted EPS of $0.18. Members grew 35% to 17.1 million. It raised 2026 guidance to $5.04 billion of adjusted net revenue and introduced a 2027 outlook of $6.4 billion and $0.90 EPS. Per the live blog, revenue and earnings beat FactSet estimates. The stock gapped up 10.5% at the open and held the gain.
TEM — Tempus AI ($72.15, +7.4%) ⚠️
- Earnings: 2026-11-02 (6 days away) ⚠️
- 52W Range: $40.77 — $92.00
- News: Per Quiver Quantitative, an Oct. 23 8-K puts aggregate payments from the Bristol Myers Squibb and Pathos agreements at $192.5 million over about five years. On Oct. 26 Tempus also announced EU IVDR Class C certification for its xR solid-tumor assay. That finishes Monday’s reversal.
TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor ($436.87, +2.9%)
- Earnings: 2027-01-14 (79 days away)
- 52W Range: $266.82 — $487.47
- News: ARK Invest sold 21,894 TSM shares on Monday, its first sale of the stock in four months (see Notable Voices).
UNH — UnitedHealth Group ($410.39, -0.1%)
- Earnings: 2027-01-12 (77 days away)
- 52W Range: $255.97 — $461.62
Commodities & FX
| Asset | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Dec) | $4,073.30 | +$42.30 | +1.0% |
| WTI Oil (Dec, settle) | $99.90 | -$1.86 | -1.8% |
| Brent Oil (Dec, settle) | $113.88 | -$1.93 | -1.7% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1130 | -0.0047 | -0.4% |
| USD/JPY | 157.95 | +0.47 | +0.3% |
| 10Y Yield | 4.99% | +0.01 | +1 bp |
| US Dollar (DXY) | 102.34 | +0.33 | +0.3% |
Oil settles are from CNBC. The changes are derived from its percentages and match December WTI’s $101.76 and December Brent’s $115.81 Monday settles. Gold, FX and the DXY are compared 4 p.m. ET to 4 p.m. ET. The DXY sits 0.6% below its 52-week high, and EUR/USD is within 0.2% of its 52-week low. Bitcoin rose 0.7% to about $80,580.
Notable Voices
Dan Ives: the AI trade is “15% through” — Dan Ives, CNBC (2026-10-27)
In two CNBC appearances, the Yorkville Ives partner said the AI trade has not topped. He called it the “third inning” and only “15% through.” In a second segment on Anthropic, he covered the valuation, investor appetite for the IPO and the tension between fast commercialization and safety risk. He described the AI trade as entering the next stage of its monetization phase. Only the segment descriptions were available, not transcripts.
Jim Cramer: the “IPO lance” could slay the bull — Jim Cramer, CNBC Mad Money (2026-10-26)
Cramer is the bear case on the week’s own catalyst. With $148 billion raised in IPOs this year, he fears Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, Alphabet, SpaceX and Oracle will soak up more capital than investors can supply. “Politics can weaken the bull, higher rates can choke it, but if you want to slay the darn thing, use the IPO lance and stab it again and again.” He was clear the companies are real, unlike in 2000: “I think both the debt and the equity markets are running out of money.”
Cathie Wood trims AI chips — Cathie Wood, Investor’s Business Daily (2026-10-27)
This is a trade, not commentary. ARK sold 21,894 TSM shares across two ETFs on Monday, its first TSMC sale in four months, during an ongoing run of AMD sales. It added two air-taxi stocks. ARK sold into Monday’s chip bounce, the same move BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky recommended.
Market Outlook
Tech extended Monday’s Anthropic rebound: the Nasdaq rose 1.18%, the Russell 2000 1.16% and the VIX fell to 17.52, while Boeing’s 9% drop held the Dow flat. The rally now rests on financing news, not earnings: $63 billion of bank and Blackstone money for Anthropic’s Broadcom purchase, and $4 billion from Nvidia and AMD for Meta’s raise. That eased credit fears, but it also binds chip vendors more tightly to their customers’ balance sheets. BTIG’s Krinsky notes the SOX’s recent 5%-up, 5%-down swing has only four precedents in 30 years, clustered in 1995 and March 2000, which preceded drawdowns of 53% and 83%. Strong confidence and durables data, plus oil still above $110 Brent, give a hawkish Fed little reason to soften Wednesday’s message even as WTI slipped under $100. The next 48 hours will show whether this is a turn or a squeeze: the Fed at 2 p.m. Wednesday, Alphabet and Microsoft after the close, then Amazon, Intel, GDP and PCE on Thursday, each a test of whether AI spending is earning its keep.
This digest is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
References
- Sean Conlon, Hugh Leask, Justina Lee and Fred Imbert, “S&P 500 posts back-to-back winning days as chips rally and oil prices slide: Live updates,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Jeff Marks, “What’s behind the AI trade comeback — plus, our take on Intel’s latest deal,” CNBC Investing Club, 2026-10-27
- Spencer Kimball and Lee Ying Shan, “Oil prices fall after Iran supreme leader and top security official discuss conditions to end war,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Steve Liesman, “Fed rate hikes are coming, but not this week: CNBC survey,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Sean Conlon and Sawdah Bhaimiya, “U.S. Treasury yields tick higher as Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting gets underway,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Kai Nicol-Schwarz, “Nvidia, AMD to invest $4 billion in Meta as tech giants deepen AI partnership,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Michelle Fox, “AI debt fears ease ahead of Oracle, Alphabet and Amazon updates. Here’s what to watch,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Federal Reserve, “Meeting calendars and information,” Federal Reserve Board, 2026
- Laya Neelakandan, “UPS beats quarterly expectations, raises full-year guidance again,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Michael Bloom, “Here are Tuesday’s biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, Apple, Broadcom, CoreWeave, Palantir, Intel & more,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- NANO Nuclear Energy, “NANO Nuclear Energy and Hyundai Engineering Sign Memorandum of Understanding to Advance KRONOS MMR Project Execution and Future Fleet Deployment,” press release via Business Insider, 2026-10-27
- David Moadel, “Rocket Lab Is Still Down 17% in 2026: Did RKLB Stock Just Find a Bottom?,” 24/7 Wall St., 2026-10-27
- David Moadel, “Energy Fuels Jumps 9% on $126M Australian Financing for Rare Earth Project; NuScale Power Climbs 7%, Oklo Gains 6%,” 24/7 Wall St., 2026-10-27
- SoFi Technologies, “SoFi Reports Third Quarter 2026 with Record Net Revenue of $1.4 Billion, Net Income of $241 Million and Raises Full-Year Guidance,” Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, SEC EDGAR, 2026-10-27
- Quiver Quantitative, “Tempus AI Gains After New Bristol Myers Deal and EU Diagnostic Certification,” Quiver Quantitative, 2026-10-27
- Investor’s Business Daily, “Cathie Wood Sells AMD, TSMC Stock; Adds Cratering Aviation Plays,” Investor’s Business Daily, 2026-10-27
- CNBC, “Third inning of the AI trade: Dan Ives,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- CNBC, “Dan Ives on Anthropic: This is not the top of the AI trade,” CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Alexa LoMonaco, “Jim Cramer warns this overlooked danger could threaten the market rally,” CNBC, 2026-10-26