Market Digest — 2026-10-28

Market Snapshot

The Fed held rates, as expected, and stocks barely moved. Per CNBC’s live market blog, it was the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow’s third straight winning day. Oracle jumped nearly 11% on a fiscal 2030 revenue outlook of $225 billion. SK Hynix’s record quarter lifted memory again: its U.S. shares rose 13% and Micron almost 6%. The VIX fell for a third day, to 16.91. The bigger move came after the bell, when Alphabet fell more than 7% in extended trading on a free-cash-flow miss and Microsoft rose 4% on a 48% jump in Azure.

Breaking News & Macro Events

Fed holds rates steady despite concerns over inflation — CNBC

The FOMC kept the funds rate at 3.75%–4%, where it has been since September’s quarter-point hike. Two of 12 voters dissented in favor of another hike: Governor Lisa Cook (her first dissent since joining in 2022) and Cleveland’s Beth Hammack. The statement upgraded growth to “expanding at a strong pace” from “solid” and kept “inflation remains elevated.” Chair Kevin Warsh: “There is no soft inflation target,” per the CNBC Investing Club. He also said one 2027 meeting will be set aside for strategy, with no rate vote. CME FedWatch still puts the odds of a December hike at 85.7%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said another hike would “not necessarily” be a mistake.

10-year Treasury yield creeps higher even as Fed keeps rates the same — CNBC

The curve steepened through the hold. The 10-year closed at 5.05% (^TNX, +5 bp) and the 30-year rose more than 4 bp to 5.354%, while the 2-year slipped more than 3 bp to 4.704%. The long end sold off even as front-end yields eased, which fits a stronger growth outlook with no hike. Thursday’s PCE, Q3 GDP and personal income are the next test of whether December is locked in.

Oil rises as U.S. reportedly tells Gulf countries to prepare for Iran strikes after the midterms — CNBC

WTI settled up 2.9% at $102.78 and Brent up 1.3% at $115.32. The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington told several Gulf states to be ready for “a short but intense military campaign” after the Nov. 3 elections. The Houthis also said they had hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile. This reverses Tuesday’s slide on Iranian peace-condition headlines, and an oil spike is the one thing Jeff Gundlach says could still stop a December hike (see Notable Voices).

Alphabet’s free cash flow sinks further; capex misses — CNBC

Revenue grew 25%, the fastest since 2021, and Cloud revenue hit $30.7 billion against $28.7 billion expected. Gemini reached 1 billion users. But EPS was $2.12 against a $3.02 LSEG estimate (CNBC says comparability isn’t clear) after an $8.66 billion loss on equity holdings. Search revenue of $63.35 billion missed $64.96 billion, and operating income of $40.58 billion missed $43.19 billion. Free cash flow fell to -$9.07 billion against -$2.70 billion expected. Capex was $51.36 billion against $55.09 billion expected. Microsoft, by contrast, reported Azure revenue of $33.17 billion (+48%) and kept free cash flow positive at $18.63 billion. Investors are now sorting the hyperscalers by cash generation, not only AI growth.

Nvidia’s $12.9 billion Hugging Face deal draws DOJ scrutiny — CNBC

The Justice Department has asked Nvidia how the September acquisition could affect competitors; Reuters reported it first and CNBC confirmed it. It is Nvidia’s second-biggest purchase, after the $20 billion Groq asset deal, which has also drawn DOJ scrutiny. Nvidia fell 1.2%.

Economic Calendar

Key Data:

FRED’s 10Y row is Tuesday’s DGS10, which matches ^TNX’s 4.993% close; today ^TNX closed at 5.045%. The target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, unchanged today; FRED’s monthly effective rate lags.

FOMC: Held at 3.75%–4.00% today, with 2 dissents for a hike. Next meeting: Dec. 8–9 (decision 2026-12-09, 42 days away), per the Fed calendar.

Upcoming Releases (Next 7 Days):

GDP, PCE, claims and ECI previous/forecast values carry over from earlier digests and were not re-verified today. The Chicago PMI and ECB/BoJ dates come from secondary calendars. The October jobs report is due Nov. 6, outside this window.

Watchlist

Dividend Stocks

COST — Costco Wholesale ($982.73, -0.9%)

• Earnings: 2026-12-10 (43 days away)
• Ex-Dividend: 2026-10-29 (tomorrow) ⚠️ | Yield: 0.59%
• 52W Range: $844.06 — $1,096.50

NKE — Nike Inc. ($37.15, -1.1%)

• Earnings: 2026-12-17 (50 days away)
• Ex-Dividend: passed 2026-08-31 | Yield: 4.37%
• 52W Range: $31.97 — $69.14

PFE — Pfizer Inc. ($29.45, -1.2%)

• Earnings: 2026-11-03 (6 days away) ⚠️
• Ex-Dividend: 2026-11-05 (8 days) | Yield: 5.77%
• 52W Range: $23.62 — $30.44 (3.3% below 52W high) ⚠️

UPS — United Parcel Service ($105.62, -0.4%)

• Earnings: Reported 2026-10-27 (next ~2027-01-26)
• Ex-Dividend: passed 2026-08-16 | Yield: 6.18%
• 52W Range: $90.84 — $122.41
• News: Gave back a little of Tuesday’s 5.8% post-earnings gain.

Growth Stocks

AAPL — Apple Inc. ($343.83, -0.9%)

• Earnings: 2026-11-02 (5 days away, per yfinance) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $243.42 — $351.73 (2.2% below 52W high) ⚠️
• News: Apple announced its first touchscreen Mac, a MacBook Pro with an OLED “ProLED XDR” display, on sale Nov. 6 from $2,899. It’s CEO John Ternus’s third major launch. “Yes, for the very first time, we are bringing touch to the Mac,” he said. IDC estimates Apple’s Q3 PC shipments fell 11%.

AMZN — Amazon.com Inc. ($254.60, +0.6%)

• Earnings: 2026-10-29 (tomorrow) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $196.00 — $287.20
• News: Reports a day after Alphabet’s free-cash-flow miss. Capex and FCF guidance are the numbers to watch (see Breaking News).

CRCL — Circle Internet Group ($81.71, +0.2%)

• Earnings: 2026-11-04 (7 days away) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $49.90 — $140.00

GOOG — Alphabet Inc. ($321.89, +1.6%) ⚠️

• Earnings: Reported 2026-10-28 after the close ⚠️
• 52W Range: $268.43 — $404.47
• News: Closed up 1.6%, then fell more than 7% after hours on -$9.07 billion of free cash flow and misses on search revenue and operating income, despite Cloud revenue of $30.7 billion (see Breaking News). Separately, Google is enlisting partners to sell more of its AI chips.

HIMS — Hims & Hers Health ($29.32, +5.0%) ⚠️

• Earnings: 2026-11-09 (12 days away) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $13.74 — $48.46
• News: HHS said it won’t act against pharmacies compounding six unapproved peptides while it writes a formal rule, per Yahoo Finance. Hims has said it will wait for final FDA rules before selling peptides still under review, so a launch may not be close.

INTC — Intel Corporation ($95.53, +1.9%)

• Earnings: 2026-10-29 (tomorrow) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $32.89 — $142.35
• News: Extended its gains into the print, after Tuesday’s Classiq quantum-software deal.

META — Meta Platforms ($612.49, -1.2%)

• Earnings: Reported 2026-10-21
• 52W Range: $520.26 — $779.82
• News: Down for a third day. Per CNBC, Meta said last week its cash flow turned negative for the first time, the same metric that sank Alphabet after hours.

MSTR — Strategy ($145.16, +2.7%)

• Earnings: 2026-10-29 (tomorrow) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $81.81 — $286.18
• News: Bitcoin rose about 0.6% to roughly $81,100 at 4 p.m. ET.

NNE — Nano Nuclear Energy ($12.39, +0.4%)

• Earnings: next date not yet listed
• 52W Range: $11.74 — $49.50 (5.5% above 52W low)

NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation ($215.38, -1.2%)

• Earnings: 2026-11-17 (20 days away)
• 52W Range: $164.27 — $243.37
• News: DOJ is examining the $12.9 billion Hugging Face acquisition (see Breaking News).

OKLO — Oklo Inc. ($27.12, -0.8%)

• Earnings: 2026-11-06 (9 days away, per yfinance) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $25.39 — $152.06 (6.8% above 52W low)

RKLB — Rocket Lab USA ($58.60, +0.5%)

• Earnings: 2026-11-09 (12 days away) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $37.57 — $151.00

SMR — NuScale Power ($5.67, -0.5%)

• Earnings: 2026-11-05 (8 days away) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $5.20 — $45.54 (9.0% above 52W low)

SMCI — Super Micro Computer ($35.81, +2.1%)

• Earnings: 2026-11-03 (6 days away) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $19.48 — $54.08
• News: Rose with the memory and chip complex after SK Hynix’s record quarter. No company-specific catalyst was confirmed.

SOFI — SoFi Technologies ($17.14, +4.5%) ⚠️

• Earnings: Reported 2026-10-27
• 52W Range: $13.86 — $32.73
• News: Added to Tuesday’s 13.4% jump after the record Q3 and the new 2027 targets of $6.4 billion revenue and $0.90 EPS. Volume was about half of Tuesday’s.

TEM — Tempus AI ($76.61, +6.2%) ⚠️

• Earnings: 2026-11-02 (5 days away) ⚠️
• 52W Range: $40.77 — $91.83
• News: Up 14% in two sessions on volume about a third above Tuesday’s. No new catalyst was confirmed today; the BMS/Pathos agreements and EU IVDR certification covered Tuesday are the latest company news.

TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor ($439.51, +0.6%)

• Earnings: 2027-01-14 (78 days away)
• 52W Range: $266.82 — $487.47

UNH — UnitedHealth Group ($407.10, -0.8%)

• Earnings: 2027-01-12 (76 days away)
• 52W Range: $255.97 — $461.62

LUNA (Luna Innovations) is omitted: it trades on the OTC Expert Market with no reliable daily data, pending its $1.39/share take-private by TJC.

Commodities & FX

Oil rows are CNBC’s settles. Yahoo’s continuous Brent contract (BZ=F) rolled from December to January today. January Brent is near $110.19, roughly $4–5 below the expiring December contract, so Yahoo’s continuous series shows a fake 3% Brent drop. The dollar’s slip lines up with the euro’s gain. GLD rose 0.3%.

Notable Voices

Jeff Gundlach on Fed’s rate pause: “What are you waiting for?” — Jeff Gundlach, CNBC Closing Bell (2026-10-28)

The DoubleLine founder argued the Fed is “a little bit behind the curve.” He pointed to a funds rate well below the ~4.7% 2-year yield. “We’re headed to 4% handle headline CPI. The commodity index is rising in a bull market, and I don’t understand why the Fed is so reluctant to move,” he said. He expects a December hike unless oil falls meaningfully.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: We can say big beats are great because the Fed won’t try and slow growth — Tom Lee, CNBC Closing Bell (2026-10-28)

Lee joined Trivariate’s Adam Parker after the hold. His argument, per the segment headline, is that the Fed has stopped leaning against growth, so strong earnings beats can now be read as good news for stocks. Within hours, Alphabet’s after-hours drop showed that the market is still grading the beats on cash flow.

Jim Cramer warns investors not to get fooled by the latest AI stock rally — Jim Cramer, CNBC Mad Money (2026-10-27)

After two days of AI gains driven by Anthropic’s financing, Cramer flagged debt-funded neoclouds, naming CoreWeave, Nebius and Iren, as the weak link while rates rise. “I’m pleased that people feel so comfortable that tech is all good to go because there is money flowing back in,” he said. “I don’t think that’s a reason to call all clear.”

Market Outlook

The Fed held at 3.75%–4% with two hawkish dissents, and markets took it calmly: the S&P 500 rose 0.28% for a third straight gain and the VIX fell to 16.91. The hold did not ease rates: the 10-year closed above 5% and FedWatch still puts a December hike at roughly 85%. Oil’s 2.9% jump on reports of renewed Iran strikes after the election is the input most likely to settle that December decision. After the bell, Alphabet and Microsoft showed what investors now reward. Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% and it kept free cash flow positive, while Alphabet’s free cash flow was negative, which suggests caution toward hyperscalers funding AI capex from the balance sheet. Thursday brings PCE and Q3 GDP in the morning and Amazon, Intel and Strategy after the close, and Amazon’s free-cash-flow guidance deserves the closest attention.

This digest is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

References

1. Sean Conlon, “S&P 500, Dow rise for third consecutive day after Fed holds steady on rates: Live updates” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
2. Jeff Cox, “Fed holds rates steady despite concerns over inflation” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
3. Matthew J. Belvedere and Jeff Marks, “Fed chairman talks tough on inflation — plus, what’s behind Micron’s big rally” — CNBC Investing Club, 2026-10-28
4. Alex Harring, “Bessent says ’not necessarily’ a mistake if the Fed hikes again” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
5. Davis Giangiulio, Sean Conlon and Hugh Leask, “10-year Treasury yield creeps higher even as Fed keeps rates the same” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
6. Lee Ying Shan and Spencer Kimball, “Oil prices rise as U.S. reportedly tells Gulf countries to prepare for Iran strikes after midterm elections” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
7. Samantha Subin, “Alphabet’s free cash flow sinks further, Q3 capex expectations miss in worrying sign for AI trade” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
8. Jordan Novet, “Microsoft stock jumps 4% as cloud growth drives earnings and revenue beat” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
9. Lora Kolodny and Eamon Javers, “Nvidia’s $12.9 billion Hugging Face deal draws DOJ scrutiny” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
10. Federal Reserve, “Meeting calendars and information” — Federal Reserve Board, 2026
11. Kif Leswing, “Apple brings touch to the Mac, reversing years-old stance on touchscreen laptop” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
12. CNBC, “Google alters its cloud playbook, enlisting partners to sell more AI chips” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
13. Gian Estrada, “Hims & Hers Jumped 6% as RFK Jr.’s HHS Uses ‘Enforcement Discretion’ to Open Peptide Compounding” — Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-28
14. Davis Giangiulio, “Bond investor Jeff Gundlach on Fed’s rate pause: ‘What are you waiting for?’” — CNBC, 2026-10-28
15. CNBC, “Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: We can say big beats are great because the Fed won’t try and slow growth” — CNBC Closing Bell (video), 2026-10-28
16. Alexa LoMonaco, “Jim Cramer warns investors not to get fooled by the latest AI stock rally” — CNBC, 2026-10-27