Overnight Developments
U.S. strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Vance hopes for ’negotiated settlement’ — CNBC
The U.S. struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, the largest island in the Persian Gulf and close to the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. official called it “a defensive measure” after Iran fired surface-to-air missiles at U.S. assets. The WSJ, which first reported the strikes, says Washington has been running “limited strikes” for weeks and keeping them quiet on purpose. This came hours after Vice President Vance said he and Trump “feel really good” about a negotiated settlement. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would respond “forcefully” and that the two sides remain far from a deal. Oil reversed part of Monday’s 7% selloff: Brent rose 1.75% to $106.60 and WTI rose 1.7% to $98.10. Affected sectors: Energy, Airlines/Transports, Rates/inflation-sensitive
Apple shares slide after weak margin outlook; Palantir slumps 8% after earnings — CNBC
Apple’s fiscal Q4 revenue beat estimates. But iPad sales missed, and its margin forecast disappointed, with rising memory costs and the cost of rolling out Siri AI as the main pressures. This was John Ternus’s first report as CEO. Apple is up 25% this year, which, as one analyst put it, leaves “little room for disappointment.” Palantir beat Q3 estimates and topped $2 billion in revenue for the first time. Its stock is still down about 8% pre-market because growth in U.S. commercial bookings slowed. Affected sectors: Mega-cap Tech, Software
Australia hikes rates to 18-year high to fight inflation — CNBC
The RBA raised its cash rate 25 bp to 4.85%, the highest since November 2008 and its fifth hike this year. Economists expected the move, but the vote was split 6–3. The RBA now sees inflation staying above its target until late 2027, three quarters later than it previously forecast, and blames fuel prices tied to the Iran war. That adds to the global pressure for higher rates, after two Fed presidents said last week that U.S. rates will need to go up. Affected sectors: Rates, Financials
Futures & Pre-Market
| Index | Futures | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,559 | -0.2% |
| NASDAQ | 28,144 | +0.1% |
| DOW | 51,659 | -0.9% |
Changes are against Monday’s settle, recomputed from daily bars at about 07:15 ET. DIA is down 0.9% pre-market, which confirms the Dow move.
The Dow is lagging because of where the losses are. AAPL is down 3.7% and accounts for about a fifth of the Dow’s drop. CRM (-2.7%), HD, UNH and IBM (each down 1–1.6%) account for another third. The rest is small losses spread across nearly every other component. Nasdaq futures are flat because NVDA (+1.3%) is offsetting Apple.
Watchlist Movers
- AAPL -3.7% pre-market. Apple’s margin outlook disappointed, though revenue beat (see above).
- INTC +1.8%, SMCI +1.4%, NVDA +1.3%. Chips are firmer even with Apple weak. Intel is coming off a 45% plunge in October.
- UNH -1.0%, PFE -0.8%. Pfizer beat Q3 estimates and raised full-year guidance to $62–64B in revenue and $2.95–3.05 in adjusted EPS. It also named Cecile Guegan CFO. The stock hasn’t responded to the beat yet.
International Markets
Japan was closed for Culture Day. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.6% and Shanghai fell 0.8%. Europe is risk-off: the FTSE is down 0.7% and the DAX 0.7%.
What to Watch at Open
Dow futures are down 0.9%, led by Apple’s 3.7% post-earnings drop. Oil is climbing again after a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island, just as U.S. midterm voting gets under way.
This alert is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.