Market-Alert

Overnight Developments Trump Rejects Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Proposal — Al Jazeera President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal on Saturday, calling it “not acceptable.” Under the Iranian offer, the US would have released frozen Iranian funds, lifted sanctions, and ended its naval blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and returning to nuclear negotiations within a week. With the reopening of the waterway now pushed out indefinitely, crude repriced hard. The move is synchronized across every contract month — November WTI +4.1% to $96.20, December WTI +3.7%, November Brent +4.0% to $108.46 — which rules out a contract-roll artifact and confirms a genuine supply-risk repricing. ...

Overnight Developments Akamai signs $11.6 billion, seven-year cloud infrastructure deal with Anthropic — Yahoo Finance Announced at 4:01 PM ET Thursday, minutes after the close: Akamai will supply Anthropic with cloud infrastructure under $11.6 billion of contractual commitment over seven years, expandable by up to another $9 billion for a total potential commitment of roughly $20 billion. Akamai also issued Anthropic a warrant for non-voting convertible preferred representing 7.7 million shares — about 5% of shares outstanding — at an exercise price of $111.33, struck essentially at Thursday’s $110.41 close. Akamai is indicated +19.3% at $131.66 in pre-market trade. ...

Overnight Developments Nasdaq futures slide as the bond sell-off carries into Thursday — Yahoo Finance No new shock hit overnight. Instead, Wednesday’s rates scare kept going. The blowout flash PMI (composite 58.4) pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.114% at Wednesday’s close, the highest since 2007, and lifted October rate-hike odds above 70%. Overnight, the dollar rose to a two-month high, and gold fell another ~0.6% on the same rate-hike bets. Nasdaq futures sold off steadily from midnight to about 04:00 ET, and none of the drop came on a single discontinuous jump. They now sit 0.85% below Wednesday’s close, while Dow futures are down only 0.2%. That split is the duration trade again: long-duration tech is getting hit hardest. ...

Overnight Developments Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz within seven days if US eases military pressure — Kyodo News (via SBS) A senior Iranian government official told Kyodo that Tehran has proposed, through a mediator, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if Washington takes initial steps to reduce military pressure — specifically moving toward ending the blockade of Iranian ports and halting operations around the strait. The stated goal is to revive stalled end-of-war negotiations. The same official ruled out a Pezeshkian–Trump meeting on the sidelines of this week’s UN General Assembly, so a quick handshake is off the table. No US response yet. ...

Overnight Developments A broad, synchronized risk-on move across every major region. Three drivers, in order of weight: Oil retreats below $100 on Hormuz supply recovery — Yahoo Finance Front-month WTI is down ~3.2% to $92.98, extending a multi-day slide as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz picks up and diplomatic prospects improve. Falling crude is the cleanest inflation-relief signal available right now, and it is doing the heavy lifting for equities. Affected sectors: Energy (negative), Tech, Consumer, Financials (positive) ...

Market data as of 09:15 ET. Overnight Developments Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% — first increase since 2023 — CNBC The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday afternoon, its first hike in three years, citing inflation that “remains elevated.” Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has been “too high … for too long,” and officials signaled the possibility of another increase before year-end. ...

Overnight Developments The Fed is expected to hike for the first time in three years — CNBC The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting today with a decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference at 2:30. Markets put better than 90% odds on a quarter-point hike to 3.75%–4.00% from the current 3.50%–3.75%, per CME FedWatch. A month ago those odds were 36%. Hot inflation readings and crude above $100 did the rest. ...

Overnight Developments Crypto slides into the Fed meeting; watchlist crypto proxies down 3–5% — AP via KSAT No single overnight headline. Bitcoin drifted from $78,750 at Monday’s 4pm ET close to about $76,900 this morning (-2.3%), with Ether -2.0%. The crypto-linked names on the watchlist are running at roughly twice that beta pre-market (see below). The backdrop is rates, not crypto-specific news: the FOMC’s two-day meeting starts today with the decision due tomorrow at 2pm ET, futures price roughly a 60% chance of a 25bp hike from the current 3.50–3.75% range, and the 10-year yield touched 5.02% during Monday’s session, its first move above 5% since October 2023. Affected sectors: Crypto / fintech, long-duration tech, rate-sensitives ...

Overnight Developments AI leaders call for slowing frontier development — CNBC Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said AI model progress should be deliberately slowed on safety grounds. OpenAI’s Sam Altman agreed the industry needs to “pace the frontier,” and Elon Musk backed the view. Markets read it as a threat to the AI capex cycle, and the selling concentrated in semiconductors and AI hardware rather than in software. Reports of a shakeup in the AI IPO pipeline added to the pressure. Affected sectors: Semiconductors, AI hardware, Technology ...

Overnight Developments No new geopolitical shock landed after Thursday’s close. The one genuine overnight move is in energy: crude is giving back Thursday’s Hormuz spike. Oil Retraces the Iran Risk Premium WTI is at $99.18, -3.22% overnight; Brent at $103.78, -3.58%. That unwinds a large chunk of Thursday’s surge, when the US oil ETF proxies jumped +5.6% (USO) and +6.4% (BNO) after Iran’s IRGC destroyed a US Saildrone in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi forces moved on Perim Island. Both of those events happened during Thursday’s session — they are already in the tape, not fresh catalysts. The overnight story is the fade of that premium, and it is the most plausible driver of the firmer US futures. Affected sectors: Energy, Transports, Airlines ...